Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II
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Hamas acceptance of disarmament was meant to trigger 14-day period during which timeline crafted for phased disarmament & IDF withdrawal. • • But that 2-week period has yet to commence, w/ little optimism for progress or flexibility from Netanyahu as Oct 27 elex approach. (6/17)
Political analyst Mohammed Hawash: Israel will continue its military escalation in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank and will not implement any clause of the second phase of the agreement before the elections.
Qatar welcomes Hamas's agreement to the plan to implement the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire The Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, met in Doha with Khalil Al-Hayyah, the political head of Hamas, and discussed the latest developments in Gaza and the Palestinian territories. In this meeting, Sheikh Mohammed welcomed Hamas' agreement to the peace committee's proposed plan to implement the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement. He also called on the international community to pressure Tel Aviv to ensure that Israel adheres to its commitments within the framework of the ceasefire agreement and ends what he called "the continuous violation of Palestinian rights." Get the latest news:
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While the shift could be enough to get Israel on board, it risks losing the support of Hamas, after the Board of Peace spent months coaxing the group to accept the phased disarmament plan. (3/19)
Washington is pushing for a simultaneous deal in Gaza: Hamas disarmament in exchange for a gradual Israeli withdrawal, followed by an international force and reconstruction. However, assassinations, implementation disputes, and the pressures of the Israeli elections are stalling the second phase.
Nearly two million Palestinians are caught between reconstruction and a ceasefire, while Israel links any withdrawal from Gaza to the disarmament of Hamas under US supervision.
US President's advisor Jared Kushner pressured Netanyahu in a 4-hour meeting in Jerusalem to move forward with the ceasefire plan. Netanyahu considers progress on the 15-point plan problematic and refuses to make concessions due to the upcoming Israeli elections and his desire to appeal to right-wing voters. Netanyahu stipulated that Hamas must take initial steps and surrender its weapons for destruction under US supervision before reconstruction work in the Gaza Strip can begin. Netanyahu announced that the Israeli army will maintain its current deployment along the Green Line, covering approximately 59% of the Gaza Strip.
After about four hours, the meeting between Kushner, Tony Blair, Mladenov, and members of the Peace Council with Prime Minister Netanyahu ended. According to a political source, an agreement was reached that no reconstruction would be carried out in the Gaza Strip before Hamas disarmed in the entire Strip. It was also agreed that the first step towards demobilization would be for Hamas to be required to hand over its weapons for destruction under American supervision. Netanyahu made it clear that the IDF would not withdraw from the Yellow Line and would remain in its current deployment. He also made it clear that Israel would continue to thwart any threat to its forces and citizens, and that there would be no change in its thwarting policy.
Hamas demanded that Israel be forced to accept the second phase of the Gaza plan, the movement stated. Israel rejected the plan in early August. The group said it called on external powers to force Israel to "fulfill all its obligations under the first phase, cease all violations, stop killings and incursions, and approve a roadmap for the second phase" of the ceasefire plan. The day before, in El Alamein, Egypt, US Presidential Envoy Jared Kushner met with mediators in the indirect talks between Israel and Hamas, separately with representatives of the group, and with Nikolai Mladenov, the Peace Council's high representative for Gaza. Subscribe to Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
Hamas calls for full implementation of Israel's commitments in the Gaza ceasefire The Hamas movement, announcing its agreement with the roadmap for the second phase of the US plan for Gaza, emphasized: The implementation of this phase is conditional on the Zionist regime's adherence to all its commitments in the ceasefire agreement. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir
Hamas: The occupying regime must fulfill all its ceasefire commitments The Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) issued a statement announcing its agreement with the second phase of the US President's plan for the Gaza Strip and stressed that the occupying regime must fulfill all its ceasefire commitments. According to the Shahab News Agency, this statement was issued after a meeting between the Hamas leadership delegation headed by Khalil al-Hayyah and the mediators and guarantors of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza under the supervision of Egypt.
#IRNA_World @IRNA_1313
Hamas' conditional agreement with the second phase of the peace plan in Gaza The Hamas movement announced in a statement: A delegation from this movement, headed by Khalil al-Hiya, met in Egypt with the mediation teams and guarantors of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza. The Hamas delegation confirmed its agreement with the roadmap for the second phase of Donald Trump's plan, which is based on the interests of the Palestinian people. We agreed with this plan in order to achieve a permanent ceasefire, the complete withdrawal of the occupying forces, and the beginning of the activities of the administrative committee. Hamas fully adhered to the ceasefire agreement in the first phase, while the occupiers did not fulfill their obligations. We call on the mediators and the Peace Council to fulfill their responsibilities and force the occupiers to implement their obligations and end the violations of the agreements. Get the latest news:
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Hamas: A delegation from the movement's leadership, headed by Khalil al-Hayya, met today in Egypt with the mediators and guarantors of the Gaza agreement. The movement informed the guarantors of its agreement to the second phase of President Trump's plan. Our agreement to the second phase of Trump's plan is contingent upon a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal. We appreciate President Trump's role in reaching the ceasefire agreement in Gaza. For more, follow us on YouTube More details on Al-Hadath Net
Hamas Movement: A delegation headed by Khalil al-Hayya met in Egypt with delegations of mediators and guarantors of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza. We agreed to the roadmap for the second phase based on the interests of our people and to reach a permanent ceasefire, complete withdrawal, and reconstruction. We call on the mediators and the Trump administration to compel the enemy to implement all the commitments of the first phase, end all violations, and stop the killings and incursions.
Hamas: We agreed to the plan in order to achieve a permanent ceasefire, a complete withdrawal of the occupation forces, and the commencement of the work of the administrative committee.
Hamas: Israel did not abide by the first phase of the agreement, deliberately escalated the military situation, and announced its rejection of the roadmap.
Hamas' conditional agreement with the roadmap for the second phase of the peace plan in Gaza The Hamas delegation headed by Khalil al-Hayyah emphasized its positions for achieving lasting peace in a meeting with the mediators and guarantors of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, which was hosted by Egypt. With the aim of protecting the interests of the Palestinian people and achieving a permanent ceasefire, Hamas agreed to the "roadmap for the second phase of the alleged Trump plan, presented by Nickolay Mladenov and the mediators." This agreement is conditional on the achievement of goals such as the complete withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip, the provision of immediate and permanent aid, and the commencement of the activities of the administrative and reconstruction committee in Gaza. @YjcNewsChannel
Hamas: We agreed to the plan in order to achieve a permanent ceasefire, a complete withdrawal of the occupation forces, and the commencement of the work of the administrative committee.
According to the Lebanese newspaper Akhbar, Hamas announced that its agreement to the second phase of the Trump plan aims to achieve a permanent ceasefire, complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, the provision of immediate and permanent aid, the start of the administrative committee, reconstruction, and the implementation of other agreed commitments.
Hamas: The movement's delegation praised President Trump's role in reaching a ceasefire agreement and establishing a roadmap for the second phase.
#Urgent | Hamas: The movement's delegation praised President Trump's role in reaching a ceasefire agreement and establishing a roadmap for the second phase.
My report: Israel Warns - Major Gaps Remain Ahead of Netanyahu–Mladenov Meeting • • After we reported yesterday on cautious optimism within the Board of Peace ahead of envoy Jared Kushner and senior Board officials’ meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli officials are making clear that the picture is far more complicated. • • A source close to the Board of Peace told us yesterday that the gaps between the sides were marginal and that there was a good chance of reaching an agreement. Today, Israeli officials are pushing back strongly against that assessment. • • Sources close to Netanyahu tell us: “There are still major gaps.” • • Israel opposes, among other things, the demand for a phased Israeli withdrawal from the Yellow Line based on Hamas’ progress before the group has been fully disarmed. Israel also opposes Turkish and Qatari involvement in a mechanism that would determine whether Hamas is meeting its obligations under the plan, and is demanding guarantees that all weapons will be destroyed, not merely stored inside Gaza.
Under the initial version of the plan, the new phase of the Gaza deal agreed to by Hamas late last month would include a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from a large part of the Gaza Strip. But Mladenov later backed down, saying Israel would not be obligated to withdraw its forces until Hamas had fully disarmed.
Mladenov also confirms our report that the Board of Peace has already started monitoring what it describes as violations of the ceasefire - referring both to Israeli actions and to those of the Hamas terror group. • According to a report on n12, earlier this week IDF forces identified a training session of approximately 50 Hamas Nukhba force terrorists practicing a raid and seizure of an Israeli community. IDF commanders in the field reportedly requested to act immediately to eliminate the terrorists, but were refused at the directive of the political echelon under the instruction of the Board of Peace.
The source familiar maintained that most important demand from Israel has already been met — a halt of its military ops in Gaza. • • Bibi initially resisted & authorized major series of strikes in days immediately following Hamas’s approval of disarmament plan. (22/31)
According to the terms that Israel itself has agreed to, it must implement all of its commitments under the Oct 2025 ceasefire deal before Hamas begins disarming. Further complicating the process, those commitments have also not been fully publicized by Board of Peace. (18/31)
The Arab diplo said Israel would have to withdraw those forces to original Yellow Line if disarmament proposal was to be implemented. • The Israeli official asserted that the IDF would maintain its positions beyond the original Yellow Line until Hamas begins disarming (17/31)
Despite apparent flouting of Oct ceasefire’s withdrawal terms, BoP refrained from demanding Israel reverse course, w/ some officials from the panel assuring Mideast mediating countries that they would do so once Hamas got on board w/ disarmament plan, an Arab diplo said. (11/31)
As phase two disarmament talks with Hamas stalled, Netanyahu directed the IDF to occupy 70% of Gaza, pushing the Yellow Line several hundred meters toward the coast and further shrinking the territory where some 2 million Palestinians were forced to live. (10/31)
A Gaza peace delegation official told Reuters that the peace plan was still in place and talks with Israel were ongoing. The comments came after Netanyahu ruled out a withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza before Hamas disarmed.
What is this event about?
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.