Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II
Open8as of
Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 14% across 8 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
A year after the Gaza ceasefire agreement, Israeli escalation continues amid questions about the second phase. #TheFinalPhase @NafeeYahya
The ceasefire agreement that came into effect in Gaza on October 10, 2025, remains only on paper; Israeli attacks and restrictions on humanitarian aid continue. → Israel has committed 5,223 ceasefire violations in the past year. → Failing to fulfill the "cessation of attacks" condition at the heart of the agreement, Israel's attacks have resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,500 Palestinians and injuries to over 5,000 since October 10, 2025. → Failing to fulfill its obligations under the agreement, Israel has expanded the territory it occupies in Gaza while allowing only one-third of the agreed-upon amount of humanitarian aid to enter the region. In Gaza, where Israel also does not allow the entry of shelter and reconstruction materials, 1,650,000 people live in dilapidated tents and war-damaged buildings; More than 1.2 million Palestinians face the threat of starvation AA Correspondent Ekrem Biçeroğlu reported on the latest situation regarding the ongoing Israeli attacks, ceasefire violations, and humanitarian crisis in Gaza on the first anniversary of the ceasefire
A year after Donald Trump's plan to end the Gaza war, a ceasefire has been implemented in its first phase, including an exchange of hostages and prisoners. However, the disarmament of Hamas, the Israeli withdrawal, and the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip remain unresolved.
Hamas: Continued Daily Killings in Gaza Escalate the War of Extermination That Has Not Ceased Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem affirmed that the continued daily killing of women and children by the Israeli occupation army in the Gaza Strip, as occurred today, represents an escalation of the war of extermination that has not ceased, despite the signing of the ceasefire agreement in Sharm El-Sheikh nearly a year ago. Qassem stressed today, Monday, that the silence of the Peace Council and its institutions, and its inability to clearly identify the occupation as the party working to undermine the ceasefire agreement, is unacceptable and cannot continue. He pointed out that the attempts by the Peace Council, Mladenov, and the American mediator to find justifications for the occupation's crimes, and to take the upcoming Israeli elections into account when dealing with its violations, will only provide cover for the continuation of these crimes and undermine the ceasefire agreement. Qassem called on the Arab and Islamic countries participating in the so-called "Peace Council" to take a clear and practical stance regarding the occupation's crimes and violations, which continue unabated given the Council's inability to stop them, despite the Palestinian commitment. Clearly stated in the ceasefire agreement. Monday: September 21, 2026 AD
Corresponding to: Rabi' al-Thani 10, 1448 AH ——————————————
Official Website - Hamas Movement Official Channel - Hamas Movement
The Israeli military announced that it would continue operations against Hamas' efforts to rebuild its capabilities, calling these actions by Hamas "an organized violation of the ceasefire agreement."
I reported in the Kan News edition After Defense Minister Katz's criticism that "we all understand" that dismantling Hamas will not happen, the US sees this as a statement that contradicts the Peace Council's efforts. A source close to the Peace Council says that "one should not believe or guess. One should cooperate with the Peace Council's plan to remove Hamas from all its ties and rule in Gaza. According to the plan, either Hamas will disband from all its ties voluntarily, or the IDF will disband it by force, with international backing." Israel claims that the first step should be to disarm Hamas, but the Peace Council claims that the 14-day ceasefire has not yet begun - and that this is an Israeli blunder. "You can continue to make bombastic statements, but in practice Hamas is standing on its feet, and this is a continuation of the policy before October 7," says a source close to the work of the Peace Council.
Hamas finally agreed on July 30, but progress has since been held up by Israel. • • BoP officials believe Netanyahu’s opposition is motivated by the upcoming Knesset election and that the US-controlled panel will be able to advance the initiative after the vote (6/21)
And I also reported on the Peace Council's warning. A source in the Peace Council: Israel has given up on a 'clean cut' in the Gaza Strip - and is essentially maintaining the policy that existed before the October coup. Hamas remains on its feet, and Israel is not dismantling it completely - neither for better nor for worse. We hope that Israel will soon implement the 20-point agreement it signed. By the way, as part of the Peace Council process, more than a quarter of a million Gazans wanted to join the Palestinian police force that is currently being established in Gaza. Israel has approved 16,000 people - who are not affiliated with Hamas and do not have a security background. 4,000 are supposed to go for training in Egypt - but Israel refuses to approve their departure. According to sources in the council, approval in principle was given in the past, but now the move is frozen. The same source wondered: Right now Israel is not allowing them to go to Egypt to train, so how will we collect the weapons if there is no new Palestinian police force, each of whose officers has been approved by the Shin Bet?
The agreement is still not complete: Israel demands the disarmament of Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement) before withdrawing troops; the Palestinian movement demands first a cessation of attacks and aid.
But the text of both the 20-point plan and the 15-point disarmament roadmap required all sides to immediately halt military operations in the Strip. • • Israel has refused to do so, carrying out near-daily strikes against what it says have been terror operatives. (7/24)
Political analyst Mohammed Hawash: Israel will continue its military escalation in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank and will not implement any clause of the second phase of the agreement before the elections.
Qatar welcomes Hamas's agreement to the plan to implement the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire The Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, met in Doha with Khalil Al-Hayyah, the political head of Hamas, and discussed the latest developments in Gaza and the Palestinian territories. In this meeting, Sheikh Mohammed welcomed Hamas' agreement to the peace committee's proposed plan to implement the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement. He also called on the international community to pressure Tel Aviv to ensure that Israel adheres to its commitments within the framework of the ceasefire agreement and ends what he called "the continuous violation of Palestinian rights." Get the latest news:
Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
While the shift could be enough to get Israel on board, it risks losing the support of Hamas, after the Board of Peace spent months coaxing the group to accept the phased disarmament plan. (3/19)
Nearly two million Palestinians are caught between reconstruction and a ceasefire, while Israel links any withdrawal from Gaza to the disarmament of Hamas under US supervision.
US President's advisor Jared Kushner pressured Netanyahu in a 4-hour meeting in Jerusalem to move forward with the ceasefire plan. Netanyahu considers progress on the 15-point plan problematic and refuses to make concessions due to the upcoming Israeli elections and his desire to appeal to right-wing voters. Netanyahu stipulated that Hamas must take initial steps and surrender its weapons for destruction under US supervision before reconstruction work in the Gaza Strip can begin. Netanyahu announced that the Israeli army will maintain its current deployment along the Green Line, covering approximately 59% of the Gaza Strip.
After about four hours, the meeting between Kushner, Tony Blair, Mladenov, and members of the Peace Council with Prime Minister Netanyahu ended. According to a political source, an agreement was reached that no reconstruction would be carried out in the Gaza Strip before Hamas disarmed in the entire Strip. It was also agreed that the first step towards demobilization would be for Hamas to be required to hand over its weapons for destruction under American supervision. Netanyahu made it clear that the IDF would not withdraw from the Yellow Line and would remain in its current deployment. He also made it clear that Israel would continue to thwart any threat to its forces and citizens, and that there would be no change in its thwarting policy.
Hamas demanded that Israel be forced to accept the second phase of the Gaza plan, the movement stated. Israel rejected the plan in early August. The group said it called on external powers to force Israel to "fulfill all its obligations under the first phase, cease all violations, stop killings and incursions, and approve a roadmap for the second phase" of the ceasefire plan. The day before, in El Alamein, Egypt, US Presidential Envoy Jared Kushner met with mediators in the indirect talks between Israel and Hamas, separately with representatives of the group, and with Nikolai Mladenov, the Peace Council's high representative for Gaza. Subscribe to Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
Hamas calls for full implementation of Israel's commitments in the Gaza ceasefire The Hamas movement, announcing its agreement with the roadmap for the second phase of the US plan for Gaza, emphasized: The implementation of this phase is conditional on the Zionist regime's adherence to all its commitments in the ceasefire agreement. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir
Hamas: The occupying regime must fulfill all its ceasefire commitments The Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) issued a statement announcing its agreement with the second phase of the US President's plan for the Gaza Strip and stressed that the occupying regime must fulfill all its ceasefire commitments. According to the Shahab News Agency, this statement was issued after a meeting between the Hamas leadership delegation headed by Khalil al-Hayyah and the mediators and guarantors of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza under the supervision of Egypt.
#IRNA_World @IRNA_1313
Hamas' conditional agreement with the second phase of the peace plan in Gaza The Hamas movement announced in a statement: A delegation from this movement, headed by Khalil al-Hiya, met in Egypt with the mediation teams and guarantors of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza. The Hamas delegation confirmed its agreement with the roadmap for the second phase of Donald Trump's plan, which is based on the interests of the Palestinian people. We agreed with this plan in order to achieve a permanent ceasefire, the complete withdrawal of the occupying forces, and the beginning of the activities of the administrative committee. Hamas fully adhered to the ceasefire agreement in the first phase, while the occupiers did not fulfill their obligations. We call on the mediators and the Peace Council to fulfill their responsibilities and force the occupiers to implement their obligations and end the violations of the agreements. Get the latest news:
Site | Ita | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
Hamas: A delegation from the movement's leadership, headed by Khalil al-Hayya, met today in Egypt with the mediators and guarantors of the Gaza agreement. The movement informed the guarantors of its agreement to the second phase of President Trump's plan. Our agreement to the second phase of Trump's plan is contingent upon a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal. We appreciate President Trump's role in reaching the ceasefire agreement in Gaza. For more, follow us on YouTube More details on Al-Hadath Net
Hamas Movement: A delegation headed by Khalil al-Hayya met in Egypt with delegations of mediators and guarantors of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza. We agreed to the roadmap for the second phase based on the interests of our people and to reach a permanent ceasefire, complete withdrawal, and reconstruction. We call on the mediators and the Trump administration to compel the enemy to implement all the commitments of the first phase, end all violations, and stop the killings and incursions.
Hamas: We agreed to the plan in order to achieve a permanent ceasefire, a complete withdrawal of the occupation forces, and the commencement of the work of the administrative committee.
Hamas: Israel did not abide by the first phase of the agreement, deliberately escalated the military situation, and announced its rejection of the roadmap.
Hamas' conditional agreement with the roadmap for the second phase of the peace plan in Gaza The Hamas delegation headed by Khalil al-Hayyah emphasized its positions for achieving lasting peace in a meeting with the mediators and guarantors of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, which was hosted by Egypt. With the aim of protecting the interests of the Palestinian people and achieving a permanent ceasefire, Hamas agreed to the "roadmap for the second phase of the alleged Trump plan, presented by Nickolay Mladenov and the mediators." This agreement is conditional on the achievement of goals such as the complete withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip, the provision of immediate and permanent aid, and the commencement of the activities of the administrative and reconstruction committee in Gaza. @YjcNewsChannel
Hamas: We agreed to the plan in order to achieve a permanent ceasefire, a complete withdrawal of the occupation forces, and the commencement of the work of the administrative committee.
According to the Lebanese newspaper Akhbar, Hamas announced that its agreement to the second phase of the Trump plan aims to achieve a permanent ceasefire, complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, the provision of immediate and permanent aid, the start of the administrative committee, reconstruction, and the implementation of other agreed commitments.
Hamas: The movement's delegation praised President Trump's role in reaching a ceasefire agreement and establishing a roadmap for the second phase.
#Urgent | Hamas: The movement's delegation praised President Trump's role in reaching a ceasefire agreement and establishing a roadmap for the second phase.
My report: Israel Warns - Major Gaps Remain Ahead of Netanyahu–Mladenov Meeting • • After we reported yesterday on cautious optimism within the Board of Peace ahead of envoy Jared Kushner and senior Board officials’ meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli officials are making clear that the picture is far more complicated. • • A source close to the Board of Peace told us yesterday that the gaps between the sides were marginal and that there was a good chance of reaching an agreement. Today, Israeli officials are pushing back strongly against that assessment. • • Sources close to Netanyahu tell us: “There are still major gaps.” • • Israel opposes, among other things, the demand for a phased Israeli withdrawal from the Yellow Line based on Hamas’ progress before the group has been fully disarmed. Israel also opposes Turkish and Qatari involvement in a mechanism that would determine whether Hamas is meeting its obligations under the plan, and is demanding guarantees that all weapons will be destroyed, not merely stored inside Gaza.
What is this event about?
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.