Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?Virginia
Open$10Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES4¢
NO96¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Live: Virginia’s primaries would have looked very different tonight had the Democratic plan to redistrict the state been allowed to proceed. State lawmakers implemented, in a referendum voters approved, a map designed to give Democrats an advantage in 10 of the state’s 11 congressional districts. But the Supreme Court of Virginia threw the plan and kept in place maps the state has been using since 2023.
Live: Polls opened at 6 a.m. in Virginia, where primary voters are picking nominees for U.S. House and other offices after an extraordinary fight over the contours of the state’s congressional map. Virginia voters had approved a Democratic-drawn map that would have helped the party gain as many as four House seats. But the state Supreme Court struck down the map in May, giving Republicans a victory and restoring the old map. Democrats are still hoping to make gains in the state in November.
Where does the news lean?
0YES2NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is:
- Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority;
- Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and
- In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections.
Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections.
Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.