GDP growth in 20261.0–1.5%
Open$4Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 8% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES8¢
NO92¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
US GDP grew 1.5% in April-June, slowing from the previous quarter and below market expectations.
NOFirst Squawk99%match94¢-2%
FED'S BOSTIC SAYS EXPECT TO SEE GDP GROWTH NORTH OF 2% IN 2026
NOFinancialJuice99%match94¢-2%
Fed's Bostic: I expect to see GDP growth north of 2% in 2026
NOFinancialJuice99%match88¢+5%
World Bank: Global real GDP growth seen at 2.6% this year. 2026 global GDP growth to reach 2.6%, down from 2.7% in 2025, as tariffs weaken trade. World Bank forecasts US 2026 growth rate at 2.2% vs 1.6% in June forecast, 2.1% in 2025. World Bank forecasts 2026 Euro area GDP…
Where does the news lean?
2YES5NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Related markets
See all outcomes for GDP growth in 2026 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.