University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - July 202646.0–48.9
ResolvedOutcome: No$2Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July at 55.2… Improvement for Two Consecutive Months
The University of Michigan's July consumer confidence index rose to 55.2, exceeding market expectations.
US ECON - Michigan Sentiment up at 55.2 in final July reading (mkt 54.0)
U.S. CONSUMER SENTIMENT TOPS ESTIMATES • • University of Michigan consumer sentiment rose to 55.2 in July, above the 54.0 consensus and up from 49.5 in June. • • One-year inflation expectations held at 4.2%, down from 4.6% in June, while the five-year outlook remained at 3.3%, pointing to stable long-term inflation expectations.
US Univ. Of Michigan Sentiment Jul F: 55.2 (est 54.0; prev 54.4) • - Current Conditions: 54.8 (est 54.6; prev 54.9) • - Expectations: 55.4 (est 53.5; prev 54.0) • - 1-Year Inflation: 4.2% (est 4.3%; prev 4.2%) • - 5-10 Year Inflation: 3.3% (est 3.3%; prev 3.3%)
NONews97%match100¢
*UMICH FINAL JULY CONSUMER SENTIMENT RISES TO 55.2; EST. 54
NOReuters97%match100¢
University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Sentiment Final July 55.2 (Consensus 54.0) vs Preliminary July 54.4 and Final June 49.5
UMich sentiment 54.4, Exp. 51.0, Last 49.5 • • 1yr inflation expectations 4.2%, Exp. 4.4% • 5-10yr inflation expectations 3.3%, Exp. 3.3%
US UNIV. OF MICHIGAN SENTIMENT JUL P: 54.4 (EST 51.0; PREV 49.5) - CURRENT CONDITIONS: 54.9 (EST 48.7; PREV 47.7) - EXPECTATIONS: 54.0 (EST 51.9; PREV 50.7) - 1-YEAR INFLATION: 4.2% (EST 4.4%; PREV 4.6%) - 5-10 YEAR INFLATION: 3.3% (EST 3.3%; PREV 3.3%) ...
US Univ. Of Michigan Sentiment Jul P: 54.4 (est 51.0; prev 49.5) • - Current Conditions: 54.9 (est 48.7; prev 47.7) • - Expectations: 54.0 (est 51.9; prev 50.7) • - 1-Year Inflation: 4.2% (est 4.4%; prev 4.6%) • - 5-10 Year Inflation: 3.3% (est 3.3%; prev 3.3%)
NONews98%match75¢+33%
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July was a preliminary 54.4 (forecast 51.0).
Where does the news lean?
0YES13NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for July 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for July 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for July 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
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