How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?↑ 47%
Open$480as of
Odds now
The market prices a 17% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES17¢
NO83¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
YESFirst Squawk99%match5¢+240%
According to a Wall Street Journal poll published January 17 2026, about 92% of Americans who voted for Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential election now give him a positive approval rating for his job performance. That includes a large share who “strongly approve” of his…
NOCGTN Europe99%match90¢-8%
TRUMP'S APPROVAL RATING SLIPS TO 41% FROM 42% EARLIER IN JANUARY-POLL
YES*Walter Bloomberg98%match20¢-15%
TRUMP’S PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATING RISES TO 42%, HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER, ACCORDING TO REUTERS/IPSOS POLL
YESCGTN America98%match20¢-15%
TRUMP’S PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATING RISES TO 42%, HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER, ACCORDING TO REUTERS/IPSOS POLL
YESCGTN Europe98%match20¢-15%
TRUMP’S PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATING RISES TO 42%, HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER, ACCORDING TO REUTERS/IPSOS POLL
NOAl Jazeera English98%match83¢
US President Trump will outline his 2026 agenda in a White House speech amid declining approval ratings and rising global tensions. Follow our LIVE coverage:
NOAl Jazeera English98%match83¢
US President Trump will outline his 2026 agenda in a White House speech amid declining approval ratings and rising global tensions. Follow our LIVE coverage:
NOAl Jazeera English98%match83¢
US President Trump will outline his 2026 agenda in a White House speech amid declining approval ratings and rising global tensions. Follow our LIVE coverage:
Where does the news lean?
4YES4NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
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