How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

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Market pricing makes ↑ 47% the favorite at 17% across 7 tracked outcomes, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

23 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

↑ 47%First Squawk99%match5¢+240%
According to a Wall Street Journal poll published January 17 2026, about 92% of Americans who voted for Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential election now give him a positive approval rating for his job performance. That includes a large share who “strongly approve” of his…
↑ 44%First Squawk99%match66¢+42%
According to a Wall Street Journal poll published January 17 2026, about 92% of Americans who voted for Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential election now give him a positive approval rating for his job performance. That includes a large share who “strongly approve” of his…
↑ 48%First Squawk99%match10¢-50%
According to a Wall Street Journal poll published January 17 2026, about 92% of Americans who voted for Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential election now give him a positive approval rating for his job performance. That includes a large share who “strongly approve” of his…
↑ 44%Leading Report99%match66¢+42%
92% of Americans who voted for Trump in 2024 give him a positive approval rating now, per WSJ poll.
↑ 47%CGTN Europe99%match90¢-8%
TRUMP'S APPROVAL RATING SLIPS TO 41% FROM 42% EARLIER IN JANUARY-POLL
↑ 44%CGTN Europe99%match36¢-83%
TRUMP'S APPROVAL RATING SLIPS TO 41% FROM 42% EARLIER IN JANUARY-POLL
↑ 48%CGTN Europe99%match87¢+9%
TRUMP'S APPROVAL RATING SLIPS TO 41% FROM 42% EARLIER IN JANUARY-POLL
↑ 50%CGTN Europe99%match92¢+3%
TRUMP'S APPROVAL RATING SLIPS TO 41% FROM 42% EARLIER IN JANUARY-POLL
↑ 50%Joe Weisenthal99%match91¢+4%
We found out what's driving young men turning on Trump
↑ 47%*Walter Bloomberg98%match20¢-15%
TRUMP’S PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATING RISES TO 42%, HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER, ACCORDING TO REUTERS/IPSOS POLL
↑ 44%*Walter Bloomberg99%match38¢-84%
TRUMP’S PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATING RISES TO 42%, HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER, ACCORDING TO REUTERS/IPSOS POLL
↑ 47%CGTN America98%match20¢-15%
TRUMP’S PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATING RISES TO 42%, HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER, ACCORDING TO REUTERS/IPSOS POLL
↑ 44%CGTN America99%match38¢-84%
TRUMP’S PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATING RISES TO 42%, HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER, ACCORDING TO REUTERS/IPSOS POLL
↑ 48%CGTN America98%match13¢-62%
TRUMP’S PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATING RISES TO 42%, HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER, ACCORDING TO REUTERS/IPSOS POLL
↑ 47%CGTN Europe98%match20¢-15%
TRUMP’S PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATING RISES TO 42%, HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER, ACCORDING TO REUTERS/IPSOS POLL
↑ 44%CGTN Europe99%match38¢-84%
TRUMP’S PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATING RISES TO 42%, HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER, ACCORDING TO REUTERS/IPSOS POLL
↑ 48%CGTN Europe98%match13¢-62%
TRUMP’S PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATING RISES TO 42%, HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER, ACCORDING TO REUTERS/IPSOS POLL
↑ 47%Al Jazeera English98%match83¢
US President Trump will outline his 2026 agenda in a White House speech amid declining approval ratings and rising global tensions. Follow our LIVE coverage:
↑ 44%Al Jazeera English98%match59¢+59%
US President Trump will outline his 2026 agenda in a White House speech amid declining approval ratings and rising global tensions. Follow our LIVE coverage:
↑ 47%Al Jazeera English98%match83¢
US President Trump will outline his 2026 agenda in a White House speech amid declining approval ratings and rising global tensions. Follow our LIVE coverage:
↑ 44%Al Jazeera English98%match59¢+59%
US President Trump will outline his 2026 agenda in a White House speech amid declining approval ratings and rising global tensions. Follow our LIVE coverage:
↑ 47%Al Jazeera English98%match83¢
US President Trump will outline his 2026 agenda in a White House speech amid declining approval ratings and rising global tensions. Follow our LIVE coverage:
↑ 44%Al Jazeera English98%match59¢+59%
US President Trump will outline his 2026 agenda in a White House speech amid declining approval ratings and rising global tensions. Follow our LIVE coverage:

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.

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