Where will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall?China
Open$12Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 99% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES99¢
NO1¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Typhoon Saudel, the eighteenth of the year, made landfall twice this Friday in China's Zhejiang province with torrential rains. #teleSUR #China #Aug28
Typhoon Saudel is expected to make landfall in East China on August 28. What are the similarities and differences between it and Typhoons Bavi and Dolphin?
Typhoon Saudel, covering an area approximately four times the size of Zhejiang Province, is expected to make landfall in 10 provinces and municipalities across China, prompting heavy rain warnings.
The Meteorological Administration issued a sea warning for Typhoon Saudel, estimating it to make landfall in Zhejiang, China around noon on the 28th.
Typhoon Saudel is expected to make landfall along the coast from Xiangshan, Zhejiang to Lianjiang, Fujian, bringing heavy rainfall to southern China, including the Yangtze River Delta, Yunnan, and Guizhou.
The China Meteorological Administration predicts that Typhoon Saudel will make landfall as early as tomorrow night in the area between Xiangshan, Zhejiang and Fuqing, Fujian.
Where does the news lean?
6YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions:
"China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan.
"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
"South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis.
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