Will Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane?
ResolvedOutcome: No$19Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
56 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Tropical Storm Lala continued to move west and away from Hawaii early Monday after skirting the Big Island as a hurricane, causing damaging winds, torrential rainfall and flooding.
Lala’s path becomes harder to predict • • Tropical Storm Lala is forecast to continue westwards away from Hawaii before curving northwest into the central North Pacific, with uncertainty around its precise track increasing significantly further into the forecast period.<b... Lala’s path becomes harder to predict • • Tropical Storm Lala is forecast to continue westwards away from Hawaii before curving northwest into the central North Pacific, with uncertainty around its precise track increasing significantly further into the forecast period. • The storm has already disrupted maritime operations in Hawaii, including the closure of Honolulu Harbor to vessel traffic. • #MarineTraffic data currently shows 71 vessels in Honolulu Harbor and anchorage in Honolulu Harbor, highlighting the level of maritime activity potentially affected by changing conditions. • MarineTraffic’s forecast visualisation shows Lala’s projected track at +9, +21, +33, +45, +69, +93 and +117 hours. Track uncertainty remains relatively contained in the near term before widening considerably as the forecast horizon extends. • The map also plots forecast peak gusts, ranging from around 40 mph at the outer edges to more than 100 mph closer to the projected storm centre. • For maritime operators, the widening forecast area is particularly important. As Lala moves further into the central North Pacific, uncertainty around its future position increases, making changing conditions an increasingly important consideration for vessel routing and operational risk.
Hurricane "Lala" destroys more than 100 homes in Hawaii
Tropical storm "Lala" causes destruction in Hawaii
Hurricane Lala approaches Hawaii, causing widespread power outages affecting over 200,000 households. Damage to homes and fallen trees are also reported. While it has weakened into a tropical depression, there is a possibility it could become a hurricane again.
Tropical Storm Lala drenches Hawaii as flash floods sweep away Big Island homes
More than 200,000 homes in Hawaii experience power outages due to Hurricane Lala.
Hurricane Lala is approaching Hawaii; over 100 homes damaged on the Big Island, and road damage and fallen trees are widespread on Maui.
Hurricane Lala makes closest approach to Hawaii, causing power outages for approximately 210,000 households; heavy rain expected to continue on the Big Island and other areas.
Hurricane Lala weakens to a tropical storm; Hawaii begins cleanup efforts.
Tropical Storm Lala brings drenching rain, wind across the Hawaiian islands
Live: As we pass 8 a.m. in Hawaii, the National Hurricane Center said in its latest update that the tropical storm warning for Hawaii County had been discontinued but that heavy rain and gusty winds were continuing across parts of Maui County and Oahu. Tropical Storm Lala was expected to turn westward "soon" and pass south of Kauai County later today, where conditions were deteriorating, the center said.
Hurricane Lala’s powerful winds lash Hawaii’s Big Island as it moves through the nearby area
More than 100,000 without power in Hawaii as Lala downgraded to tropical storm
Lala is again a tropical storm, sending drenching rain and winds across the Hawaiian islands
Live: In its latest update, the National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Lala continued to bring life-threatening flooding across parts of the Big Island and Maui County, as it moved farther west, with another one to three inches of rain expected across windward portions of the islands. Heavy rain and gusty winds were spreading across Oahu, with tropical storm conditions expected to reach Kauai later Sunday.
Hurricane "Lala": One dead and power outages in Hawaii
Tropical storm Lala kills 1, sweeps away homes as flooding hits Hawaii
Lala downgrades to tropical storm, sending drenching rain and winds across the Hawaiian islands
Lala is a tropical storm again after lashing past Hawaii's Big Island
Hurricane Lala skirts Hawaii’s Big Island as heavy wind and rain lash region
Live: Lala weakened to a tropical storm early Sunday morning local time, as it moved farther west, away from Hawaii’s Big Island, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center. The Big Island is now under a tropical storm warning, along with Maui County, where damaging winds and heavy rain were expected to continue. Oahu and Kauai County also remained under tropical storm warnings. Conditions were expected to deteriorate across Oahu in the morning, with tropical storm conditions spreading westward from Maui County to Oahu, before reaching Kauai later Sunday.
1 dead as Hurricane Lala avoids landfall on Hawaii's Big Island
Heavy rain and flooding: Hurricane "Lala" causes power outages in Hawaii
Hurricane Lala blasts the Hawaiian Islands as a Category 1 hurricane, unleashing rare and dangerous impacts on the state with violent flooding and damaging winds. • • At least one person was killed in a storm-related car accident, according to an update from Governor Josh Green. • • A Flash Flood Emergency is now unfolding on the Big Island as torrential rain is still slamming the Islands with reports of at least two homes swept away. • • Read more
Hawaii: The archipelago hit by Hurricane Lala
Live: Hurricane Lala’s eyewall, a ring of thunderstorms surrounding its calm center, grazed the southern part of the Big Island, the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 p.m. local time update. The eye itself has not made landfall. Damaging winds were expected on the Big Island through the night, while heavy rain was forecast to continue overnight and spread west to the other islands into Sunday.
Live: Hurricane Lala continued moving northwest on Saturday evening local time, as it began pulling away from Hawaii’s Big Island, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Video has emerged of Hurricane Lala in Hawaii, which left one person dead in a car crash and more than 60,000 homes without power, ABC reports, citing Hawaii Governor Josh Green. The hurricane skirted the Big Island without making landfall. Heavy rains could cause flooding and landslides, and dangerous surf is expected along the coast. About 190 flights were canceled due to the severe weather. Airports and commercial ports on several islands were also closed. Lala's maximum sustained winds reached 130 km/h, equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane. The storm is expected to gradually weaken. If the video doesn't load for you, you can watch it in "Max."
The eye of Hurricane Lala brushed past the southern part of Hawaii's Big Island on Saturday, as heavy rain and strong winds struck the US Pacific state and officials warned of potentially dangerous flooding
Hurricane Lala caused severe winds and rainfall in the US state of Hawaii. • 1 person died
• More than 60,000 households were left without electricity
• More than 190 flights were delayed
Tropical Storm Lala intensifies into a hurricane as it approaches Hawaii's Big Island
One dead as Hurricane Lala lashes Hawaii's Big Island as a Category 1 storm
Tropical Storm Lala intensifies into a hurricane as it approaches Hawaii's Big Island. #Arabic_Business
Hawaii: Hurricane Lala causes heavy rain and power outages
Hawaii: Heavy rain, strong winds, and power outages… Hurricane Lala hits the archipelago
USA: Hurricane "LaLa" hits Hawaii, about 80,000 people are without power
Heavy rains and power outages: Hurricane Lala threatens Hawaii
Hurricane Lala lashes Hawaii's Big Island as a Category 1 storm
Hurricane Lala hits Hawaii - with 89,000 losing power
Live: Hurricane Lala’s eyewall -- a ring of thunderstorms surrounding its calm center -- grazed the southern part of the Big Island, the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 p.m. local time update. The eye itself has not made landfall. Damaging winds were expected on the Big Island through the night, while heavy rain was forecast to continue overnight and spread west to the other islands into Sunday.
Hurricane Lala lashes Hawaii's Big Island as a Category 1 storm. Maps show its path.
Hurricane Lala causes heavy rain and power outages in Hawaii
Live: The eyewall of Lala, a ring around the storm’s center, was nearing the southern tip of the Big Island at 4 p.m. local time. “The center of the eye has to pass over land for it to count for landfall, and that looks like it probably won’t happen,” said Stephen Parker, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Honolulu. But even so, he adds, “it does not mean that significant wind and flooding impacts will not occur. In fact they have been occurring all afternoon.”
Live: Hurricane Lala continued to advance slowly, its center 35 miles south of the Big Island at 3 p.m. local time, the National Hurricane Center said. Winds were peaking across the Big Island and strengthening across Maui and Oahu. They were expected to pick up on Kauai on Saturday night.
Hurricane Lala is now a Category 1 storm as it nears Hawaii's Big Island, bringing heavy rain, life-threatening flooding and mudslides. Gov. Josh Green declared a state of emergency as the storm moves toward the island. Meteorologist @AndrewKozaktv has the latest track.
Hurricane Lala Expected to Strengthen to a Hurricane as It Nears Hawaii
Hurricane Lala lashes Hawaii's Big Island. Maps show its path.
Hurricane Lala hits Hawaii with torrential rains; governor declares state of emergency.
Live: Hurricane Lala was rotating 60 miles from the Big Island’s southern tip at noon local time, hurling heavy rain and gusty winds at the island. Sustained winds of 41 miles per hour and a 59 m.p.h. gust were recently recorded at a site near South Point.
Hurricane "Lala" is approaching Hawaii
Tropical Storm Lala strengthens into a hurricane and is heading toward the Hawaiian Islands, USA, with a risk of making landfall. Sustained winds of 120 km/h. It could be the first hurricane to make landfall in the archipelago since 1992. #Hawaii #HurricaneLala #teleSUR
Lala becomes Category 1 hurricane as it bears down on Hawaii's Big Island
Live: As Hurricane Lala swirled off the coast of the Hawaii Island, its bands were dropping heavy rain. Just after 10 a.m. local time, the National Weather Service issued a flash flood warning for the island through 1 p.m. The agency warned that several locations were at particular risk, including Hilo, Paradise Park and Hawaii Volcanoes National Park.
Lala strengthens to Category 1 hurricane, bears down on Hawaii’s Big Island with heavy rain, dangerous winds
Live: The Hawaiian archipelago is about to be hit by Hurricane Lala, with winds currently at 120 km/h, according to the US National Weather Service (NWS)...
Where does the news lean?
38YES22NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall.