Will Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane? Odds jumped to 33% on Aug 16, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane? On , the market’s odds jumped from 21¢ to 32.5¢ (+11.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from money.udn.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match21¢
+5m14.5¢
+30m12¢
+1h32.5¢
+24h1.1¢
1h move+11.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 16, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 34.5¢ → 19.5¢-15 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
  • 32.5¢ → 23¢-9.5 ptsafter a signal from cbseveningnews
  • 23¢ → 8¢-15 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com

What moved the odds?

Yesmoney.udn.com95%match
Hurricane Lala hits Hawaii with torrential rains; governor declares state of emergency.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$19K

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Will Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.