Who will be arrested before 2027?Tom Homan

OpenVol$40Kas of

Odds now

The market prices a 10% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES10¢
NO90¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOnypost.com99%match87¢+3%
Tom Homan claims Hochul hurting migrants as NY Dems look to shrink local partnerships with ICE: ‘You’re forcing us’
NOfoxnews99%match86¢+5%
Border czar Tom Homan hits back at sanctuary cities and the impact those policies have on communities: • • “Victims and witnesses of crime don't want the bad guy back in the neighborhood either.” • • “We're not interested in victims or witnesses to a crime. We're interested in the criminal that you arrested and locked into a jail cell. That's who we want to talk to.”

Where does the news lean?

0YES3NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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