Who will be arrested before 2027?Benjamin Netanyahu
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Odds now
The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES5¢
NO95¢
as of
What moved the odds?
12 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani admits the city can't arrest Benjamin Netanyahu. • • Despite his campaign promise to have the Israeli prime minister arrested, Mamdani was forced to concede that New York City doesn't have legal authority to execute the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant. • • Mamdani instead called on the federal government to enforce the warrant if Netanyahu visits New York, while reiterating that he believes the Israeli leader should be "arrested and tried for his crimes." • • Netanyahu is expected to travel to New York in September for the United Nations General Assembly.
Trump: Netanyahu will not be arrested in the US "Donald Trump" announced that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not be arrested in any way if he travels to the United States. These statements came after New York Mayor Zahran Mamdani said he was still considering Netanyahu's arrest. @Mehrnews
Trump: Netanyahu will not be arrested in the US Donald Trump announced that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not be arrested in any way if he travels to the United States. These statements came after New York Mayor Zahran Mamdani said he was still considering Netanyahu's arrest. isna.ir/xdWLwC
@isna94
President Donald Trump said Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “will not be arrested” when he visits New York in September, pushing back on a suggestion by Mayor Zohran Mamdani that such an arrest could happen.
Donald Trump said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not be arrested while in the United States. Earlier, New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani announced consultations with city lawyers on the possibility of detaining Benjamin Netanyahu if he arrives at the UN General Assembly. The discussion was based on the International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant issued against Netanyahu in November 2024. The United States is not a party to the Rome Statute and does not recognize the ICC's jurisdiction over US and Israeli citizens. Subscribe to Kommersant in MAX | in Telegram [in reply to: Benjamin Netanyahu will arrive in the United States on July 18, Reuters reports. The official reason for the visit will likely be the funeral of Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, Ynet notes. Subscribe to Kommersant in MAX | in Telegram]
Trump: Netanyahu will never be arrested in the United States In response to reports that Israeli officials are afraid of traveling to the United States due to the possibility of arrest, Donald Trump wrote:
Benjamin Netanyahu will never be arrested in the United States of America in any way, shape, or form. He is fighting the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Trump: Netanyahu will not be arrested in the US US President Donald Trump said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not be arrested under any circumstances while in the US. nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social: “Benjamin Netanyahu will not be arrested in any way, shape or form while in the United States. He is at war with the Islamic Republic, a government that recently killed 52,000 innocent protesters and has killed American soldiers and others over the past 47 years.”
Trump added: “The only people who should be arrested are the people who led Iran into this unprecedented cycle of death and destruction; an issue that previous US presidents should have addressed years ago.”
New York Mayor Zahran Mamdani had previously said he was considering arresting Benjamin Netanyahu if he traveled to the city to attend the United Nations General Assembly this fall.
Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social: "Benjamin Netanyahu will not be arrested in any way, under any circumstances, in any form, if he is in the United States. He is fighting the Islamic Republic, a government that recently killed 52,000 innocent protesters."
President Trump says Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu will not be arrested while in the US. • • The comments come after New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani said in an interview that he may still order his arrest.
TRUMP SAYS NETANYAHU WILL NOT BE ARRESTED IN U.S. • • President Donald Trump said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not be arrested while visiting the United States. Trump praised Netanyahu’s campaign against Iran and blamed Iran’s leadership for decades of violence, arguing they—not Netanyahu—should be held accountable.
Benjamin Netanyahu will not be arrested, in any way, shape, or form, while in the United States of America. He is fighting against the Islamic Republic of Iran, which recently killed 52,000 innocent protestors, and has spent the last 47 years killing American Soldiers, and others. The only ones that should be arrested are the people that led Iran into this unprecedented SPIRAL OF DEATH AND DESTRUCTION, something that should have been dealt with years ago, by previous Presidents! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Where does the news lean?
0YES12NO8neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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