Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?No release by July 31
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$134Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
15 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Gemini Model Launch Postponed Again... Dark Clouds Over Google Ahead of Earnings Announcement
Google Postpones ‘Gemini Pro’ Release… Launches Only 3 Lightweight AI Models
Google Postpones ‘Gemini Pro’ Release… Launches Only 3 Lightweight AI Models
Is Google falling behind again? Unveils only three lightweight models without a Gemini ‘Pro’
Google Launches Lightweight AI 'Gemini 3.6 Flash'... "Pro Model Not Yet Available"
Google Ships New Gemini Flash Models, But Pro Is Still Missing
Google Releases New Gemini Flash Models, But Flagship Still Delayed
GOOGLE JUST LAUNCHED THREE NEW GEMINI MODELS. • • Google $GOOGL announced Gemini 3.6 Flash, Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite, and Gemini 3.5 Flash Cyber. • • Pricing: • Gemini 3.6 Flash: $1.50 per million input tokens, $7.50 per million output tokens • Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite: $0.30 per million input tokens, $2.50 per million output tokens • • Gemini 3.5 Pro is still being tested with partners, with a wider release planned once ready. • • Meanwhile, Google says it has already begun pre-training Gemini 4.
Google updates lightweight Gemini models, but flagship still delayed
"Google Delays 'Gemini 3.5 Pro' Launch by Several Months"… Stock Price Drops 4.4%
Gemini 3.5 Pro was supposed to launch in June, but it’s still not out.
The release of Google's flagship AI model, Gemini 3.5 Pro, has been delayed due to the technology "failing to meet internal targets." According to Bloomberg, the delay is due to insufficient refinement of the programming language. This could result in Google losing its market advantage, the agency clarifies. "Late last month, Google updated the data used to train Gemini to try to improve those skills, but the results were disappointing, one employee said," Bloomberg reports, citing a company employee. More IZ RU news in MAX
Alphabet shares fall on report its most powerful AI model Gemini 3.5 Pro is delayed
Alphabet shares fall on report its most powerful AI model Gemini 3.5 Pro is delayed
GOOGLE $GOOGL MONTHS BEHIND ON GEMINI 3.5 PRO AS TECH FALLS SHORT OF GOALS • • Google is months behind schedule on Gemini 3.5 Pro, its most powerful flagship AI model, as it works to improve the model's capabilities, particularly in coding, per Bloomberg. Google updated the data used to train Gemini late last month to improve those capabilities, but the results fell short of expectations. • • The model was due in June, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai said at Google's I/O conference in May. Bloomberg said the setback has some Google engineers, researchers and managers worried as rivals OpenAI and Anthropic release models outperforming Gemini, citing 10 current and former employees. Alphabet shares slipped nearly 3% after the report. • • A Google spokesperson said it is testing 3.5 Pro, an upgraded Flash model and others with partners, and is "shipping quickly across a wide range of models while keeping them highly cost-effective."
Where does the news lean?
13YES3NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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