How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?14–16
Open$189Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 43% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES43¢
NO57¢
as of
Where does the news lean?
0YES0NO2neutraltrailing 24h
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Related markets
See all outcomes for How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.