Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?0-20
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Odds now
The market prices a 99% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES99¢
NO1¢
as of
What moved the odds?
17 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
YESReuters96%match97¢+2%
Five Commodity Vessels Transit Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, Well Below 10-Day Average of 15, Data Shows
At its lowest point in four months: only two ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, compared to 140 before the war.
At its lowest point in four months: only two ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, compared to 140 before the war.
Reuters, citing shipping data: Fewer than 20 cargo ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the past two days.
An assessment by the British Maritime Trade Organization also shows that since the beginning of the war against Iran, commercial ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased from nearly 160 to less than 10.
Kepler: The 10-day average of ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz was 11. Three ships passed through on Saturday and two on Sunday. No very large crude oil tankers or liquefied natural gas tankers passed through the waterway.
Ship traffic in Strait of Hormuz plummets… ‘0’ on the 16th
Reuters, citing shipping data: No vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.
Reuters, citing shipping data: No vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.
Reuters, citing shipping data: No vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.
Live: Transit through Strait of Hormuz comes at a standstill, data shows
Wall Street Journal: Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to one-fifth of its previous level.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising fuel prices would reduce global oil demand by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026. However, the agency expects demand to increase by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2027 as market conditions improve. According to the agency’s August report, the demand decline will gradually ease in the second half of 2026, and oil consumption will start to grow again in the final quarter of the year. The agency also raised its estimate of the supply deficit in the third quarter of the year to 1.8 million barrels per day, more than double the forecast last month. The International Energy Agency said that global visible oil inventories fell by 69 million barrels in July, and that a total of 410 million barrels have been drawn since the end of February. According to the organization, the rapid decline in reserves has increased the need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although the market is likely to face a surplus again by the end of the year.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has reached its lowest level in three months Analysis of statistics published by ship traffic tracking institutions shows that the five-day average of vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz has reached its lowest level in three months. A review of statistics by the maritime tracking company "Kepler" shows that in the past five days, an average of only 13 vessels have passed through this international waterway. This figure is the lowest since May 12. This figure includes all types of vessels, from cargo ships to oil tankers. This traffic is about 90 percent less than the average daily maritime traffic before the start of the war against Iran. At that time, 130 ships were passing through this route daily. The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17 to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which saw the five-day average of ship crossings jump to about 60 on June 26. But the agreement collapsed when oil sanctions against Iran were reimposed, contrary to its explicit text. A new analysis of statistics shows that maritime traffic is now about 80 percent below its peak after the agreement. @Defapress_ir
Kepler data: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz drops to its lowest level in a week... Only 8 ships were observed on Tuesday, compared to the 130 to 140 ships that usually passed through before the closure.
Windward tracked 12 Hormuz transits in the 24 hours to 21:00 UTC 5 August: 6 inbound, 6 outbound, against a ~140-vessel pre-disruption baseline. • • 3 vessels ran AIS-dark overnight ~12h each via the southern corridor. One outbound bulk carrier routed straight from Iran to a military anchorage in Oman, flagged by Windward Maritime AI as tier 1 blockade-breaker candidate. • • One vessel approached inbound toward Iraq, then reversed course short of the strait.
Windward tracked 12 Hormuz transits in the 24 hours to 21:00 UTC 5 August: • 6 inbound, 6 outbound, against a ~140-vessel pre-disruption baseline. • • 3 vessels ran AIS-dark overnight ~12h each via the southern corridor. One outbound bulk carrier routed straight from Iran to a military anchorage in Oman, flagged by Windward Maritime AI as tier 1 blockade-breaker candidate. • • One vessel approached inbound toward Iraq, then reversed course short of the strait.
Where does the news lean?
42YES13NO7neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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