Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?80+
Open$8Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Kepler: The 10-day average of ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz was 11. Three ships passed through on Saturday and two on Sunday. No very large crude oil tankers or liquefied natural gas tankers passed through the waterway.
Kepler data: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz drops to its lowest level in a week... Only 8 ships were observed on Tuesday, compared to the 130 to 140 ships that usually passed through before the closure.
U.S. RAISES OIL PRICE FORECAST ON HORMUZ DISRUPTION • • U.S. energy officials expect Strait of Hormuz constraints to persist through August, limiting oil flows. • • The EIA raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $87 a barrel from $82 and lifted its U.S. gasoline estimate to $3.78 a gallon. • • Despite President Trump saying the strait is open, only eight vessels crossed Monday, versus roughly 120 before the war.
The increase in threats and attacks in the Strait of Hormuz has severely reduced shipping traffic and raised concerns about disruptions to global trade. Maritime agencies have warned that the risk of a new attack remains high. Gulf News reported that the possibility of a deliberate attack in the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days is assessed as “very high.” Since March 1, 84 confirmed incidents have been recorded in the waterway, the most recent of which was an attack on an oil tanker on August 8. According to the report, only 40 US-coordinated ship crossings were recorded from August 5 to 8; compared to an average of about 138 ships passing through this route daily in 2025. The Joint Maritime Intelligence Center also announced that the Revolutionary Guards are monitoring commercial ships and communicating with them via wireless. CENTCOM announced that as of August 9, 53 commercial ships had changed their routes and two vessels had ceased operations. The center predicted that the restrictions on traffic in the Strait of Hormuz would continue for at least the next 24 to 48 hours, with ships ready for surveillance, radio calls, and possible inspections.
Windward tracked 12 Hormuz transits in the 24 hours to 21:00 UTC 5 August: 6 inbound, 6 outbound, against a ~140-vessel pre-disruption baseline. • • 3 vessels ran AIS-dark overnight ~12h each via the southern corridor. One outbound bulk carrier routed straight from Iran to a military anchorage in Oman, flagged by Windward Maritime AI as tier 1 blockade-breaker candidate. • • One vessel approached inbound toward Iraq, then reversed course short of the strait.
Windward tracked 12 Hormuz transits in the 24 hours to 21:00 UTC 5 August: • 6 inbound, 6 outbound, against a ~140-vessel pre-disruption baseline. • • 3 vessels ran AIS-dark overnight ~12h each via the southern corridor. One outbound bulk carrier routed straight from Iran to a military anchorage in Oman, flagged by Windward Maritime AI as tier 1 blockade-breaker candidate. • • One vessel approached inbound toward Iraq, then reversed course short of the strait.
Where does the news lean?
0YES12NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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