Peak US National Debt before 2027?$42 trillion
Open$9Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 10% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES10¢
NO90¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOFirst Squawk99%match80¢+13%
U.S. national debt is projected to rise by roughly $2.4 trillion per year over the next decade, based on updated CBO estimates. At that pace, total federal debt could approach $64 trillion by 2036 — roughly double its 2023 level.
NOzerohedge99%match75¢+20%
US public debt to hit $64 trillion by 2036, up $2.4 trillion every year from $39 trillion today (CBO via BofA)
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match84¢+7%
CBO FORECASTS SOARING U.S. DEFICITS AND DEBT The Congressional Budget Office projects the U.S. budget deficit will hit $3.115 trillion (6.7% of GDP) by FY2036, averaging 6.1% annually from FY2027–2036. FY2026 is expected at $1.853 trillion, unchanged from FY2025 as a share of…
YESFirst Squawk99%match16¢-37%
US national debt reaches $38.5 trillion
YESFirst Squawk99%match16¢-37%
U.S. NATIONAL DEBT REACHES RECORD HIGH OF $38.5 TRILLION.
Where does the news lean?
6YES6NO14neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. national debt reaches the listed value this year at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current). If treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
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