Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Open$62.7Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 13% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES13¢
NO88¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Will the US invade Iran before 2027? • Polymarket sees this at a 32 percent chance of occurring, despite a ceasefire being in place. • A full invasion is unlikely although if peace negotiations continue to stall limited ground incursions could be a possibility. • What do you think?
Where does the news lean?
1YES2NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.