How many jobs added in August?50k – 100k
Open$4Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 28% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES28¢
NO72¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
US JOBS COULD BEAT EXPECTATIONS — WOLFE SEES 65K PAYROLL GAIN • • Wolfe Research expects 65,000 jobs added in August, above the 55,000 consensus, with unemployment rising slightly to 4.16%. • • Private payrolls are forecast to add 75,000 jobs, partly offset by a 10,000 decline in government employment. • • Wage growth is expected at 0.35% month-over-month, also above consensus. • • Wolfe says markets may react significantly only if payrolls fall outside the 40K–100K range, while September’s Fed decision will likely depend more on inflation data.
Where does the news lean?
1YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
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