How many jobs added in August?
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Market pricing makes 50k – 100k the favorite at 28% across 6 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
US JOBS COULD BEAT EXPECTATIONS — WOLFE SEES 65K PAYROLL GAIN • • Wolfe Research expects 65,000 jobs added in August, above the 55,000 consensus, with unemployment rising slightly to 4.16%. • • Private payrolls are forecast to add 75,000 jobs, partly offset by a 10,000 decline in government employment. • • Wage growth is expected at 0.35% month-over-month, also above consensus. • • Wolfe says markets may react significantly only if payrolls fall outside the 40K–100K range, while September’s Fed decision will likely depend more on inflation data.
US JOBS COULD BEAT EXPECTATIONS — WOLFE SEES 65K PAYROLL GAIN • • Wolfe Research expects 65,000 jobs added in August, above the 55,000 consensus, with unemployment rising slightly to 4.16%. • • Private payrolls are forecast to add 75,000 jobs, partly offset by a 10,000 decline in government employment. • • Wage growth is expected at 0.35% month-over-month, also above consensus. • • Wolfe says markets may react significantly only if payrolls fall outside the 40K–100K range, while September’s Fed decision will likely depend more on inflation data.
US JOBS COULD BEAT EXPECTATIONS — WOLFE SEES 65K PAYROLL GAIN • • Wolfe Research expects 65,000 jobs added in August, above the 55,000 consensus, with unemployment rising slightly to 4.16%. • • Private payrolls are forecast to add 75,000 jobs, partly offset by a 10,000 decline in government employment. • • Wage growth is expected at 0.35% month-over-month, also above consensus. • • Wolfe says markets may react significantly only if payrolls fall outside the 40K–100K range, while September’s Fed decision will likely depend more on inflation data.
Average Weekly U.S. Private Employment Change for 4 Weeks Ended August 1: 9,500 - ADP
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm