UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
Open$282Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 11% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES11¢
NO90¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Trump stated that he believes a deal with Iran will be reached after the November midterm elections in the United States. Speaking at the UN General Assembly, he threatened to destroy the Islamic Republic otherwise and reiterated that he would not allow Tehran to acquire nuclear weapons.
Security Council session to vote on US draft resolution on Iran
20:34/ September 8
The Board of Governors of the International Energy Agency has issued a resolution referring Iran's nuclear file to the United Nations Security Council. This resolution was approved with 23 votes in favor, 8 abstentions and 3 votes against. The West will not be able to take serious action against Iran in the Security Council due to the veto of Russia and China. Moreover, even if the most severe resolutions against Iran are approved in the Security Council, the situation will still not be worse than the current war situation. Iran will react to this resolution.
Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing diplomatic sources, that the International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors has issued a resolution referring Iran to the United Nations Security Council for violating its nuclear non-proliferation commitments after 20 years. The new resolution follows a previous resolution by the Board of Governors on June 12 last year, a list of Iran's "non-compliance" with its commitments that was approved just a day before the start of Israeli and subsequent US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. According to legal requirements, a formal report of these violations to the UN Security Council required the adoption of a second resolution by the 35-member council, which has now been completed. This move could pave the way for the return of international sanctions and increased diplomatic pressure on Tehran.
@VahidOOnLine @VahidOnline
The Associated Press reported that the United States, Britain, France and Germany have prepared a draft resolution to refer Iran's nuclear file to the United Nations Security Council due to Tehran's failure to comply with non-proliferation commitments. The draft has not yet been officially submitted to the International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors, and negotiations on its text are ongoing. If submitted, the resolution will be put to a vote at the Board of Governors meeting in Vienna next week. A draft from IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi calls for the resolution to be sent to the UN Security Council and General Assembly, while also emphasizing support for a diplomatic solution to Iran's nuclear program. The Associated Press reported that the Islamic Republic has not allowed IAEA inspectors access to damaged nuclear sites since the Khordad 1404 attacks, and the status of 440.9 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium has not been verified. The agency has warned that the continued lack of inspectors' access poses a "proliferation risk" that must be addressed "with the utmost urgency."
The United States, Britain, France and Germany are pushing for the International Atomic Energy Agency's board of governors to adopt a resolution next week that would formally refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council for violating its nuclear non-proliferation commitments, diplomats told Reuters on Friday. The draft resolution follows a previous board action on June 12, 2025, in which Tehran was found to be in breach of its international obligations for failing to fully cooperate with the agency's investigation into traces of uranium particles at undeclared sites./Entebbe
Russia and China foiled a resolution in the Security Council to discuss the Iranian nuclear issue
Live: UN Security Council members condemn Iran at emergency session
The latest discussions suggest he is looking for ways to break the deadlock with Tehran and hasn’t yet ruled out a return to fighting. Resuming the conflict, some officials acknowledge, would be a tacit admission that the much-touted Iran deal failed.
Where does the news lean?
5YES12NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.