Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?United States
ResolvedOutcome: No$106Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The United States Completes Recent Strikes Against Iran Tampa, Florida — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) completed a new round of strikes against Iran at 9 p.m. Eastern Time on July 20. On July 20, the U.S. military struck Iranian military command centers, naval combat capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to weaken Iran's ability to continue attacking merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Merchant ships can still pass through this vital international waterway. Since early May, U.S. Central Command forces have assisted nearly 900 merchant ships and 450 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military remains deployed and ready to hold Iran accountable for its unprovoked attacks on civilian sailors seeking free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Video footage released on July 20, 2026, shows U.S. Central Command launching its latest precision strikes, further weakening Iran's military capabilities. (U.S. Central Command video)
Live: Renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran continued to disrupt the supply of energy, causing shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to slow to nearly a halt. Just eight ships navigated the artery on Thursday, the second full day of the reinstated U.S. naval blockade of Iran, according to Kpler, a maritime data company. Before the war started in late February, more than 130 ships would pass through the waterway each day. As U.S. strikes on Iran continued for a seventh straight day, Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, rose 1.5 percent on Friday to between $85 and $86 a barrel.
White House spokeswoman Caroline Leavitt said that the Islamic Republic had committed to not attacking commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz under a memorandum of understanding with the United States, but it has violated this commitment. She added that Donald Trump will not remain silent in the face of these actions and the Islamic Republic must accept the consequences. Leavitt said that the naval blockade of ships heading to or from Iranian ports was re-established on the orders of Donald Trump and is now fully implemented. According to him, this action was taken following the Islamic Republic's non-compliance with the agreement with the United States. The White House spokesman added that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to ships whose destinations are not Iranian ports, and the US Navy ensures their security.
He also said about the Islamic Republic's attacks on the Kurdistan Region of Iraq that Tehran is paying the price for the actions taken following the recent US attacks against it.
#Breaking | Trump: The Strait of Hormuz is open and will remain open, and we will reimpose a naval blockade on Iran.
All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will be the custodian of the Strait of Hormuz, and a 20% toll will be levied on all goods shipped through it.
#Breaking | Trump: The Strait of Hormuz is open and will remain open, and we will reimpose a naval blockade on Iran. All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will be the custodian of the Strait of Hormuz, and a 20% toll will be levied on all goods shipped through it.
Trump: The United States will be the guardian of the Strait of Hormuz and a 20% fee will be levied on all goods shipped through it.
Live: Donald Trump claims the United States is taking control of the Strait of Hormuz
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: Regional countries should learn from the situation of the past 4 months, which has been challenged due to the presence of the United States! The US claims about escorting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz indicate America's insistence on continuing insecurity in the region.
Qalibaf: The United States violated "Iranian arrangements" in the Strait of Hormuz
Where does the news lean?
14YES3NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
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