Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
Resolved8as of
This hub tracks 8 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Germany moves its warships away from the Strait of Hormuz The German government has moved two of its naval vessels, which were on standby for possible participation in the international mission to secure the Strait of Hormuz, out of the Gulf of Aden and into the Mediterranean Sea. @IRNA_1313
The key condition in this is that fighting in the Strait of Hormuz must stop before Britain, France and others begin their expedition — something, of course, that has proved impossible to sustain.
The U.S. wants to build on discussions that the U.K. and France had with multiple countries in recent months about a potential international coalition for the Strait of Hormuz, the sources said. • • One of the key conditions many countries have set is that fighting in the strait ends so that conditions on the ground are safe enough for an international maritime mission. • The sources said the U.S. wants its allies to send assets to the region like de-mining vessels, naval vessels and drones to help secure shipping lanes. • "The Americans are looking for a way, out and they want our help," the European diplomat said
The United States Completes Recent Strikes Against Iran Tampa, Florida — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) completed a new round of strikes against Iran at 9 p.m. Eastern Time on July 20. On July 20, the U.S. military struck Iranian military command centers, naval combat capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to weaken Iran's ability to continue attacking merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Merchant ships can still pass through this vital international waterway. Since early May, U.S. Central Command forces have assisted nearly 900 merchant ships and 450 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military remains deployed and ready to hold Iran accountable for its unprovoked attacks on civilian sailors seeking free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Video footage released on July 20, 2026, shows U.S. Central Command launching its latest precision strikes, further weakening Iran's military capabilities. (U.S. Central Command video)
09:24/ July 20
A well-informed source in the IRGC Navy said: "Currently, there is no traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and any attempt to pass through this strait, especially by violating vessels, will be met with a response from the Iranian armed forces. As long as the hostile actions and evil deeds of the United States continue, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed and no permits will be issued for the passage of vessels."
Reuters: Shipping data showed that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz remained low over the weekend due to intensified attacks by the United States and the Islamic Republic.
Informed source in the IRGC Navy: No permits will be issued for vessels to pass through An informed source in the IRGC Navy: As long as the hostile actions and evils of the United States continue, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed and no permits will be issued for vessels to pass through. Currently, there is no traffic through this sea route, and any attempt to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, especially by violating vessels, will be met with a response from the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In the past few days, some vessels that intended to pass through this route with the support of the US army have been met with a response from the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In the current situation, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has reached zero and this route will remain closed as long as the hostile actions of the US continue, and no permits will be issued for vessels to pass through. @Farspolitics - Link
Live: Renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran continued to disrupt the supply of energy, causing shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to slow to nearly a halt. Just eight ships navigated the artery on Thursday, the second full day of the reinstated U.S. naval blockade of Iran, according to Kpler, a maritime data company. Before the war started in late February, more than 130 ships would pass through the waterway each day. As U.S. strikes on Iran continued for a seventh straight day, Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, rose 1.5 percent on Friday to between $85 and $86 a barrel.
White House spokeswoman Caroline Leavitt said that the Islamic Republic had committed to not attacking commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz under a memorandum of understanding with the United States, but it has violated this commitment. She added that Donald Trump will not remain silent in the face of these actions and the Islamic Republic must accept the consequences. Leavitt said that the naval blockade of ships heading to or from Iranian ports was re-established on the orders of Donald Trump and is now fully implemented. According to him, this action was taken following the Islamic Republic's non-compliance with the agreement with the United States. The White House spokesman added that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to ships whose destinations are not Iranian ports, and the US Navy ensures their security.
He also said about the Islamic Republic's attacks on the Kurdistan Region of Iraq that Tehran is paying the price for the actions taken following the recent US attacks against it.
France: We have no intention of entering into a military conflict in the Middle East In response to the continuation of America's belligerent policies against Iran, French Armed Forces Minister Catherine Vautrin emphasized that the French government has no intention of entering into new military conflicts in the Middle East. @IRNA_1313
#Breaking | Trump: The Strait of Hormuz is open and will remain open, and we will reimpose a naval blockade on Iran.
All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will be the custodian of the Strait of Hormuz, and a 20% toll will be levied on all goods shipped through it.
#Breaking | Trump: The Strait of Hormuz is open and will remain open, and we will reimpose a naval blockade on Iran. All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will be the custodian of the Strait of Hormuz, and a 20% toll will be levied on all goods shipped through it.
Trump: The United States will be the guardian of the Strait of Hormuz and a 20% fee will be levied on all goods shipped through it.
Trump: The United States will be the "protector of the Strait of Hormuz" but will be compensated with 20% on all shipments transiting it. #Breaking #Here_is_the_Kingdom
Live: Donald Trump says the United States will be "paid" to monitor the Strait of Hormuz
Live: Donald Trump claims the United States is taking control of the Strait of Hormuz
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: Regional countries should learn from the situation of the past 4 months, which has been challenged due to the presence of the United States! The US claims about escorting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz indicate America's insistence on continuing insecurity in the region.
Spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Regional countries should learn from the situation of the past 4 months, which has been challenged due to the presence of the United States! The US claims about escorting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz indicate America's insistence on continuing insecurity in the region.
@Farsna
Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is closed while the United States insists it remains open, after the confrontation over the vital waterway again sparked US and Iranian strikes.
Live: Germany says ready to assist with Hormuz mine sweeping operation
(Al Jazeera) German Foreign Minister to Al Jazeera: Germany and other countries, led by France and Britain, are ready to remove mines in the Strait of Hormuz
(Al Jazeera) German Foreign Minister to Al Jazeera: Germany and other countries, led by France and Britain, are ready to remove mines in the Strait of Hormuz
Japan and Germany to cooperate in a free Pacific Ocean, including free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Qalibaf: The United States violated "Iranian arrangements" in the Strait of Hormuz
Reuters reported that France and Britain will present their plans for a multinational naval mission in the Strait of Hormuz during talks between foreign ministers of NATO and Gulf Arab states on Tuesday. The meeting, which will be held on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Ankara, will bring together the foreign ministers of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates after weeks of tension in the strategic waterway, despite a temporary peace agreement between the United States and Iran. The news agency emphasized that diplomats say Iran's rejection of the initiative reduces the likelihood of the vital waterway being fully reopened.
France and Britain will present their plans for a multinational naval mission in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday during talks between foreign ministers of NATO member states and Gulf Arab states.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei: The German Foreign Minister's speech regarding the Strait of Hormuz is extremely shameful. Germany must be held fully accountable for its complicity in the military aggression against Iran and bear the heavy costs of its active participation. No amount of provocative rhetoric from the Berlin regime will absolve it of responsibility for its role in this illegal war and the war crimes committed.
The German Foreign Minister’s rhetoric on the Strait of Hormuz is utterly shameful — a grotesque distortion of reality that reeks of Mephistopheles in Goethe’s Faust. • • Germany must be held fully accountable for its complicity in military aggression against Iran and bear the heavy costs of its active participation in the crime of aggression. • • No amount of offensive posturing will allow the Berlin regime to evade responsibility for its role in this illegal war and the war crimes committed against the Iranian people.
The German Foreign Minister’s rhetoric on the Strait of Hormuz is utterly shameful — a grotesque distortion of reality that reeks of Mephistopheles in Goethe’s Faust. • • Germany must be held fully accountable for its complicity in military aggression against Iran and bear the heavy costs of its active participation in the crime of aggression. • • No amount of offensive posturing will allow the Berlin regime to evade responsibility for its role in this illegal war and the war crimes committed against the Iranian people.
American affairs expert Peter Rove: NATO countries are looking out for their own interests and the United States did not participate in defending the Strait of Hormuz against Iranian attacks.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.