Which Senate races will be within 5%?Texas
Open$6Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 80% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES80¢
NO20¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Three consecutive polls show James Talarico narrowly ahead of Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. • • The latest: Texas Southern U. has Talarico up 47%-45%. • • In the past week, a Fox poll had Talarico up 51-48 and a Texas Public Opinion Research survey found Talarico up 45-40.
Where does the news lean?
1YES1NO7neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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