Which Senate races will be within 5%?
Open18as of
Market pricing makes Alaska the favorite at 85% across 18 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
12 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
With the midterm elections approaching, Ohio leans toward Democrats in a vacant Republican seat, and Texas opens a gap after John Cornyn's disqualification.
39% chance - and rising - Republicans win the Michigan senate race. • •
Live: Why Michigan’s Senate race might come down to the wire
Three consecutive polls show James Talarico narrowly ahead of Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. • • The latest: Texas Southern U. has Talarico up 47%-45%. • • In the past week, a Fox poll had Talarico up 51-48 and a Texas Public Opinion Research survey found Talarico up 45-40.
Michigan’s Senate Race Turned Ugly. Democrats Eyeing 2028 Are Watching Closely
Michigan’s 2026 Senate race remains a toss-up, according to an EPIC-MRA poll: • • Haley Stevens 44% • Mike Rogers 42% • Rogers leads Abdul El-Sayed 46%-43% in a separate matchup.
The DDHQ Forecast rates Georgia's Senate race as Likely Democratic. • • Incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff has a 77% win probability, with a projected final margin of 53% for Ossoff and 47% for Republican Mike Collins.
The DDHQ Forecast gives Democrats a 60% chance of winning Michigan's Senate race. The race is listed at Lean Democratic. • • Both parties will determine their nominees in a primary on August 4.
In 2024, Nebraska independent @OsbornForNE came within 7 points of defeating a GOP senator even as Trump won by 21 pts. • • He's running again in '26. Can he prevail in a bluer year? • • “Ugh,â€� Sen. Deb Fischer said. “I think Nebraskans see through this guy.â€� • •
Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves the Georgia Senate race to **Likely** Democratic
The @Center4Politics Crystal Ball shifts the Georgia Senate race from leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. • • “While we have had the race rated as Leans Democratic, by this point, it would be a true shock if Ossoff actually went on to lose.” #gapol • •
What is this event about?
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.