Which Senate races will be within 5%?
Open18as of
Market pricing makes Texas the favorite at 78% across 18 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
28 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
DEMOCRATS POUR MILLIONS INTO OHIO SENATE RACE • • Democrats are directing another $7 million into Ohio as Sherrod Brown leads Jon Husted by 6 points in the latest CNN/SSRS poll. • • Kalshi traders price Brown at 59% versus Husted’s 41%. • • With over $430 million in expected ad spending, Ohio is becoming a major Senate battleground. •
Brown holds 6-point lead over Husted in Ohio Senate race survey Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is ahead of incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) by six points in the race for the latter’s seat, according to a new poll. In the CNN poll, 49 percent of respondents said they were leaning in the direction of Brown if the election occurred that day, while 43 percent said…
John Thune heads to Minnesota today to campaign for #MNSEN nominee Michele Tafoya, including at a family farm in Le Sueur. • • Trump lost the state by 5 points in 2024, though NRSC chair Tim Scott recently called the race "perhaps one of the most exciting" on the map for the GOP.
Alaska US Senate Poll Mary Peltola - 50% Dan Sullivan (Inc) - 43% New York Times/Siena University 504 Likely Voters 9/24-10/1
New Senate polls: New York Times/Siena • • TEXAS: Talarico 51%, Paxton 45% • (D+6) • • ALASKA: Peltola 50%, Sullivan 43% • (D+7) • • OHIO: Brown 49%, Husted 46% • (D+3) • • IOWA: Hinson 48%, Turek 47% • (R+1) • • KANSAS: Marshall 45%, Hamilton 45% • (TIE) • •
New Senate polls: New York Times/Siena • • TEXAS: Talarico 51%, Paxton 45% • (D+6) • • ALASKA: Peltola 50%, Sullivan 43% • (D+7) • • OHIO: Brown 49%, Husted 46% • (D+3) • • IOWA: Hinson 48%, Turek 47% • (R+1) • • KANSAS: Marshall 45%, Hamilton 45% • (TIE) • •
Ossoff's strength in Georgia is especially notable compared to the competitive race in Michigan. Those are the 2 Trump-won states Democrats are defending on the Senate map. • • You can see DDHQ's Senate forecast here: •
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Democrat Sherrod Brown Up 8 Points In Ohio Senate Race (Updated Daily). • Trump has a 37% average approval rating in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.
AARP poll has Alaska races after RCV as • • Senate: Peltola +6 • House: Begich +14 • •
Live: The national view on the North Carolina Senate race is that the Republican nominee, Michael Whatley, is running out of time to show he can narrow the race before G.O.P.-aligned groups redirect their money to other states.
UVA’s crystal ball moves their race rating on Iowa Senate race to Toss Up and Michigan Senate to Leans Dem • • SENATE • MI Toss-up > Leans D • IA Leans R > Toss-up • KS Likely R > Leans R • • @kkondik
UVA’s crystal ball moves their Iowa Senate race rating from Tossup to Leans Dem
Toss Up -> Leans Democratic • • In today's DDHQ Forecast update, Alaska's Senate race is out of the Toss Up column. • • Democrat Mary Peltola has a 61% win probability, up from 51% in late July.
Alaska US Senate Poll Mary Peltola - 53% Dan Sullivan (Inc) - 47% AARP 800 Likely Voters 9/8-9/11
New - Senate poll - Alaska Mary Peltola 46% Dan Sullivan (Inc) 41% After RCV: Peltola +6 2024 Trump +13.1 Fabrizio/Impact #A - LV - 9/11
Decision Desk HQ Michigan Senate Forecast (9/8): • • Probabilities: • El-Sayed: 70% • Rogers: 30% • • Polling Average: • El-Sayed: 46.9% • Rogers: 42% • • Projected Vote Share: • El-Sayed: 53% • Rogers: 47% • • Explore this race on Votes:
With the midterm elections approaching, Ohio leans toward Democrats in a vacant Republican seat, and Texas opens a gap after John Cornyn's disqualification.
39% chance - and rising - Republicans win the Michigan senate race. • •
Live: Why Michigan’s Senate race might come down to the wire
Three consecutive polls show James Talarico narrowly ahead of Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. • • The latest: Texas Southern U. has Talarico up 47%-45%. • • In the past week, a Fox poll had Talarico up 51-48 and a Texas Public Opinion Research survey found Talarico up 45-40.
Michigan’s Senate Race Turned Ugly. Democrats Eyeing 2028 Are Watching Closely
Michigan’s 2026 Senate race remains a toss-up, according to an EPIC-MRA poll: • • Haley Stevens 44% • Mike Rogers 42% • Rogers leads Abdul El-Sayed 46%-43% in a separate matchup.
The DDHQ Forecast rates Georgia's Senate race as Likely Democratic. • • Incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff has a 77% win probability, with a projected final margin of 53% for Ossoff and 47% for Republican Mike Collins.
The DDHQ Forecast gives Democrats a 60% chance of winning Michigan's Senate race. The race is listed at Lean Democratic. • • Both parties will determine their nominees in a primary on August 4.
In 2024, Nebraska independent @OsbornForNE came within 7 points of defeating a GOP senator even as Trump won by 21 pts. • • He's running again in '26. Can he prevail in a bluer year? • • “Ugh,â€� Sen. Deb Fischer said. “I think Nebraskans see through this guy.â€� • •
Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves the Georgia Senate race to **Likely** Democratic
The @Center4Politics Crystal Ball shifts the Georgia Senate race from leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. • • “While we have had the race rated as Leans Democratic, by this point, it would be a true shock if Ossoff actually went on to lose.” #gapol • •
What is this event about?
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.