Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority?
ResolvedOutcome: No$41Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
13 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Quebec separatists vowing independence vote win provincial election but fall short of majority
Canada’s Quebec ‘Separatist Party’ Wins Election… “Pushing for Independence Referendum”
Canada's Quebec Separatist Party Wins Election... "Push for Independence Referendum"
In Canada, the "Party of Quebec", known for its separatist views, has won the election in the French-speaking province of Quebec. Now the political force will form a government, and its leader Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon will become the next premier of the province. This was reported by Radio-Canada and Reuters.
In Quebec, the victory of the Parti Québécois has revived the question of independence.
Canada: Quebec separatists win elections and promise a referendum
[UPDATE] How the separatist Parti Québécois took back power in Quebec (first reported at 2026-10-06T00:45:35.000Z)
[UPDATE] Quebec separatists vowing independence vote win an election but fall short of majority (first reported at 2026-10-06T01:00:23Z)
In Quebec, the separatists win the provincial elections and promise a new referendum on leaving Canada.
Parti Québécois Returns to Power, Reviving Quebec Sovereignty Push
The victory of the Parti Quebecois, led by Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon, ends eight years of government by the "Coalition for the Future of Quebec" and puts the issue of Quebec's future in Canada back on the agenda of provincial politics.
Associated Press: Quebec's separatist party won a provincial election on Monday, returning to power the party that has promised to hold a new referendum on the province's independence from Canada.
[UPDATE] Quebec sovereigntist party will form minority government, CTV News projects. Live results here. (first reported at 2026-10-05T09:28:57.170122500Z)
Where does the news lean?
16YES3NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).