Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?S + MP + C + L
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Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Sweden's Social Democratic party leader Magdalena Andersson said Tuesday she had failed to form a government with the three other parties in the left-wing bloc following last month's election. •
Assaf Rosenzweig
The political impasse in Sweden continues: Opposition leader and former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson made it clear today that she is still unable to form a government. The four parties in the center-left bloc she leads are unable to decide which of them will be in the government and which will be forced to stay out.
Sweden’s Andersson fails to form government after row with Left Party Social Democrat leaderMagdalena Anderssonsays she has abandoned efforts to form Sweden’s next government after her bloc’s narrow election victory earlier this month. “I can conclude that there is currently no possibility for me to form a government,”Anderssonsaidat a press conference Monday, arguing that the Left Party’s decision to back a Moderate lawmaker as parliamentary speaker had broken the coalition she was trying to assemble. Andersson’scenter-left bloc beat outgoing Prime MinisterUlf Kristersson’sconservative grouping by three seats in the Sept. 13 election,prompting his resignation. She had been expected to negotiate with the bloc’s other parties before returning as prime minister. The dispute centers onAndreas Norlén, the incumbent speaker and a member ofKristersson’sModerate Party. The LeftbackedNorlénrather than the Social Democrats’ candidate,Johanna Haraldsson.Anderssonsaid the largest party in a governing coalition traditionally holds the speaker’s post. Left Party leaderNooshi DadgostarrejectedAndersson’sreading, calling it “something strange” and denying that her party had formed a new bloc with the Moderates. The Left still supportsAnderssonas prime minister — prompting questions over whether Monday’s move is a genuine retreat or a bid to force the party into an outside-support role. The new parliament has only just convened. Theearliest possibleprime ministerial vote is Tuesday, but talks could run for weeks. Under Sweden’s system, a candidatemust avoid 175 votes againstrather than win an outright majority. Tim Ross contributed to this report.
Sweden's Left Fails to Form Coalition... Opportunity Likely to Pass to the Right
Live: Left-leaning coalition failed to form government in Sweden, Social Democratic leader Andersson says
Where does the news lean?
0YES6NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”.
- If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government.
If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
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