Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)Cut–Pause–Cut
ResolvedOutcome: No$6Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
BREAKING: The Fed is no longer expected to cut interest rates in 2026 after today's Fed decision. • • The odds of the Fed cutting interest rates this year just fell to a new low of 44%. • • For the first time since 1992, four Fed members dissented today's decision.
Fed votes 8-4 to hold rates steady, the most divisive decision since 1992. Miran wanted a 25bp cut. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan supported the hold but wanted the Fed to remove the easing bias in the statement. • • The line in question says, "In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."
MARKETS SLASH FED CUT ODDS TO COIN FLIP BEFORE 2027 • • Kalshi pricing now shows only a ~50% chance of any Fed rate cut before 2027, down sharply from 80–90% earlier this year. • • As the FOMC meets, markets are effectively pricing a “higher-for-longer” regime, suggesting little confidence in near-term easing. •
Traders are maintaining their expectations that the Federal Reserve will not alter interest rates before the conclusion of 2026, following the Labor Department's report of a significant rise in consumer prices for March. Current market pricing in interest-rate futures contracts suggests approximately a one-in-three probability of a rate cut by the Fed's December meeting. • • More Here →
Where does the news lean?
2YES4NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
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See all outcomes for Fed decisions (Apr-Jul) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.