Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Resolved9as of
This hub tracks 9 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
The US Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged; the chairman said he would take action if necessary, while three officials opposed the decision, advocating for a rate hike.
COINDESK HEADLINES: Fed holds rates steady, extending pause as markets await Kevin Warsh's policy roadmap. • • Presented by @Bullish.
The US Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, while three members opposed the decision, advocating for a rate hike.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but three officials opposed, arguing for a rate hike. The chairman stated, "We will stick to the 2% target."
A divided Fed votes to hold rates steady
Live: “I wouldn’t characterize what we did as anything like a pause,” Warsh said in response to a question about the Fed holding rates steady today. “I would characterize what we did as a rigorous review as the economic situation.”
The Federal Reserve held rates steady for the 5th strait meeting this year. It was a 9 to 3 vote with the Cleveland Fed President, Dallas Fed President, and Minneapolis Fed President wanting a .25% rate increase. #FederalReserve
As predicted - Fed keeps rates steady on a vote of 9-3. • • "Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little."
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, while assessing the situation in the Middle East; three officials called for a rate hike.
The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to hold interest rates steady.
Fed holds rates steady, extending pause as markets await Kevin Warsh's policy roadmap. • For the first time in several years, markets were somewhat split on whether the U.S. central bank would hike rates.
Usually, by the time the Federal Reserve meets, Wall Street already knows the outcome, but this time is different. The market expects interest rates to remain unchanged, but Fed Chairman Warsh's silence makes the meeting even more unpredictable.
Will the US Federal Reserve change its interest rates? The decision is expected this Wednesday, with markets favoring the status quo.
JUST IN: Markets are now pricing in an extended Fed pause, with no rate cuts expected until December 2027.
JUST IN: Markets are now pricing in an extended Fed pause, with no rate cuts expected until December 2027.
JUST IN: Markets are now pricing in an extended Fed pause, with no rate cuts expected until December 2027.
US rate futures see lower hike chances, higher odds of Fed pause
Fed policymaker Miran: I think it is appropriate to cut interest rates •
BREAKING: The Fed is no longer expected to cut interest rates in 2026 after today's Fed decision. • • The odds of the Fed cutting interest rates this year just fell to a new low of 44%. • • For the first time since 1992, four Fed members dissented today's decision.
BREAKING: The Fed is no longer expected to cut interest rates in 2026 after today's Fed decision. • • The odds of the Fed cutting interest rates this year just fell to a new low of 44%. • • For the first time since 1992, four Fed members dissented today's decision.
Federal Reserve Sets Upper Bound at 3.75%, Leaves Rates Unchanged • • The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, setting the upper bound at 3.75%, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous level. • • According to Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, there were four dissents on the Fed’s rate pause, with three bank presidents pushing to remove the easing bias and one governor dissenting in favor of a rate cut. The last meeting with four dissents was in 1992. • •
Federal Reserve Sets Upper Bound at 3.75%, Leaves Rates Unchanged • • The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, setting the upper bound at 3.75%, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous level. • • According to Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, there were four dissents on the Fed’s rate pause, with three bank presidents pushing to remove the easing bias and one governor dissenting in favor of a rate cut. The last meeting with four dissents was in 1992. • •
US Fed holds interest rates steady for third straight meeting
Fed votes 8-4 to hold rates steady, the most divisive decision since 1992. Miran wanted a 25bp cut. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan supported the hold but wanted the Fed to remove the easing bias in the statement. • • The line in question says, "In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."
MARKETS SLASH FED CUT ODDS TO COIN FLIP BEFORE 2027 • • Kalshi pricing now shows only a ~50% chance of any Fed rate cut before 2027, down sharply from 80–90% earlier this year. • • As the FOMC meets, markets are effectively pricing a “higher-for-longer” regime, suggesting little confidence in near-term easing. •
MARKETS SLASH FED CUT ODDS TO COIN FLIP BEFORE 2027 • • Kalshi pricing now shows only a ~50% chance of any Fed rate cut before 2027, down sharply from 80–90% earlier this year. • • As the FOMC meets, markets are effectively pricing a “higher-for-longer” regime, suggesting little confidence in near-term easing. •
The Fed’s Rate Cuts Are On Pause. But Are They Also Off the Table? - WSJ • •
The Fed’s Rate Cuts Are On Pause. But Are They Also Off the Table? - WSJ • •
The Fed's Rate Cuts Are On Pause. But Are They Also Off the Table? -- WSJ
The Fed's Rate Cuts Are On Pause. But Are They Also Off the Table? -- WSJ
What is this event about?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm