ECB Interest Rates: July 202625 bps Increase
ResolvedOutcome: No$139Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
#Breaking | The European Central Bank keeps interest rates unchanged at 2.25 percent and confirms its commitment to a monetary policy that ensures inflation remains stable at its target of 2 percent over the medium term (statement)
ECB leaves interest rates on hold but further increases predicted
European Central Bank keeps policy interest rate unchanged, taking a wait-and-see approach regarding inflation and economic trends.
ECB LEAVES DEPOSIT FACILITY RATE AT 2.25%; EST. 2.25% • • ECB NOT PRE-COMMITTING TO A PARTICULAR RATE PATH
NONews91%match100¢
The European Central Bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged.
The European Central Bank meets expectations and holds interest rates steady at 2.25%
NOReuters92%match99¢+1%
ECB Says Interest Rates Interest Rates on Deposit Facility, Main Refinancing Operations and Marginal Lending Facility Will Remain Unchanged at 2.25%, 2.40% and 2.65% Respectively
NOReuters94%match99¢+1%
ECB Says Leaves Interest Rate on Deposit Facility Unchanged at 2.25% (Reuters Poll 2.25%)
NOReuters93%match99¢+1%
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hold Deposit Rate at 2.25% on July 23, Said All 74 Economists
The path to a ‘one-and-done’ rate rise at the ECB
Still, the growth outlook is weakening and there’s no risk of a wage-price spiral whatsoever. A bumblebee ECB should not overreact.
Where does the news lean?
5YES10NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
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See all outcomes for ECB Interest Rates: July 2026 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.