ECB Interest Rates: July 2026
Resolved5as of
This hub tracks 5 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
#Breaking | The European Central Bank keeps interest rates unchanged at 2.25 percent and confirms its commitment to a monetary policy that ensures inflation remains stable at its target of 2 percent over the medium term (statement)
#Breaking | The European Central Bank keeps interest rates unchanged at 2.25 percent and confirms its commitment to a monetary policy that ensures inflation remains stable at its target of 2 percent over the medium term (statement)
ECB leaves interest rates on hold but further increases predicted
ECB leaves interest rates on hold but further increases predicted
European Central Bank keeps policy interest rate unchanged, taking a wait-and-see approach regarding inflation and economic trends.
European Central Bank keeps policy interest rate unchanged, taking a wait-and-see approach regarding inflation and economic trends.
[2nd Report] ECB freezes interest rates… Deposit rate 2.25%
ECB LEAVES DEPOSIT FACILITY RATE AT 2.25%; EST. 2.25% • • ECB NOT PRE-COMMITTING TO A PARTICULAR RATE PATH
ECB LEAVES DEPOSIT FACILITY RATE AT 2.25%; EST. 2.25% • • ECB NOT PRE-COMMITTING TO A PARTICULAR RATE PATH
The European Central Bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged.
The European Central Bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged.
The European Central Bank meets expectations and holds interest rates steady at 2.25%
The European Central Bank meets expectations and holds interest rates steady at 2.25%
*ECB LEAVES DEPOSIT FACILITY RATE AT 2.25%; EST. 2.25%
ECB Says Interest Rates Interest Rates on Deposit Facility, Main Refinancing Operations and Marginal Lending Facility Will Remain Unchanged at 2.25%, 2.40% and 2.65% Respectively
ECB Says Interest Rates Interest Rates on Deposit Facility, Main Refinancing Operations and Marginal Lending Facility Will Remain Unchanged at 2.25%, 2.40% and 2.65% Respectively
*ECB LEAVES DEPOSIT FACILITY RATE AT 2.25%; EST. 2.25%
ECB Says Leaves Interest Rate on Deposit Facility Unchanged at 2.25% (Reuters Poll 2.25%)
ECB Says Leaves Interest Rate on Deposit Facility Unchanged at 2.25% (Reuters Poll 2.25%)
ECB Says Leaves Interest Rate on Deposit Facility Unchanged at 2.25% (Reuters Poll 2.25%)
Markets are pricing in two 25 basis point interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank by the end of the year.
Markets are pricing in two 25 basis point interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank by the end of the year.
A Bloomberg survey suggests the European Central Bank will pause its inflation assessment next week before raising interest rates in September. All survey participants expect no change in borrowing costs next Thursday. Most then anticipate a quarter-point increase in the deposit rate to 2.5% in September, when policymakers release their new quarterly projections. #Arabic_Business
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hike Deposit Rate One More Time in 2026, Said 52 of 74 Economists
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hold Deposit Rate at 2.25% on July 23, Said All 74 Economists
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hold Deposit Rate at 2.25% on July 23, Said All 74 Economists
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hold Deposit Rate at 2.25% on July 23, Said All 74 Economists
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hold Deposit Rate at 2.25% on July 23, Said All 74 Economists
The path to a ‘one-and-done’ rate rise at the ECB
The path to a ‘one-and-done’ rate rise at the ECB
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.