August Unemployment Rate4.4%
ResolvedOutcome: No$1Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The US unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in August, in line with expectations.
The unemployment rate on an unrounded basis was 4.14% in August, vs 4.09% in July. It was 4.32% in August 2025.
NONews93%match100¢
*US AUG. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.1%; EST. 4.1%
The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.1% in August, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month.
NONews93%match100¢
The US unemployment rate for August was 4.1% (Reuters forecast: 4.1%)
NOdbnews93%match99¢+1%
*US AUG. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.1%; EST. 4.1%
NOReuters94%match99¢+1%
U.S. August Unemployment Rate 4.1% (Consensus 4.1%)
Where does the news lean?
0YES7NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
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