August Unemployment Rate

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This hub tracks 9 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

4.1%100%

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

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★ US unemployment rate for August remains unchanged at 4.1%
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The US unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in August, in line with expectations.
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The US unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in August, in line with expectations.
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The US unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in August, in line with expectations.
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The US unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in August, in line with expectations.
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The US unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in August, in line with expectations.
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The US unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in August, in line with expectations.
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The unemployment rate on an unrounded basis was 4.14% in August, vs 4.09% in July. It was 4.32% in August 2025.
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The unemployment rate on an unrounded basis was 4.14% in August, vs 4.09% in July. It was 4.32% in August 2025.
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The unemployment rate on an unrounded basis was 4.14% in August, vs 4.09% in July. It was 4.32% in August 2025.
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The unemployment rate on an unrounded basis was 4.14% in August, vs 4.09% in July. It was 4.32% in August 2025.
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The unemployment rate on an unrounded basis was 4.14% in August, vs 4.09% in July. It was 4.32% in August 2025.
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*US AUG. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.1%; EST. 4.1%
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*US AUG. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.1%; EST. 4.1%
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*US AUG. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.1%; EST. 4.1%
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*US AUG. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.1%; EST. 4.1%
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*US AUG. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.1%; EST. 4.1%
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*US AUG. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.1%; EST. 4.1%
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The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.1% in August, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month.
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The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.1% in August, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month.
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The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.1% in August, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month.
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The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.1% in August, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month.
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The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.1% in August, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month.
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The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.1% in August, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month.
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The US unemployment rate for August was 4.1% (Reuters forecast: 4.1%)
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The US unemployment rate for August was 4.1% (Reuters forecast: 4.1%)
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The US unemployment rate for August was 4.1% (Reuters forecast: 4.1%)
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The US unemployment rate for August was 4.1% (Reuters forecast: 4.1%)
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The US unemployment rate for August was 4.1% (Reuters forecast: 4.1%)
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The US unemployment rate for August was 4.1% (Reuters forecast: 4.1%)

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.