Closest Senate Race (of listed options)?Texas
ResolvedOutcome: No$2Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
In the DDHQ Forecast, the Texas Senate race is a Toss Up, with both candidates having a virtually even chance to win. • • James Talarico has gained in recent weeks; as recently as July 23, Paxton had a 60% probability to win.
The DDHQ Forecast has Republican Ken Paxton as a narrow favorite in the Texas Senate race, with a 57% win probability. • • The projected vote share is 51% for Paxton, and 49% for Democrat James Talarico.
Where does the news lean?
8YES2NO7neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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See all outcomes for Closest Senate Race (of listed options)? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.