Closest Senate Race?
Open16as of
Market pricing makes Texas the favorite at 14% across 16 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
28 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Texas's Senate race is just about a dead heat in Decision Desk HQ's 2026 midterm forecast. Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico each have a 50% shot at winning the Lone Star State.
IowaThe Democratic and Republican candidates in the Iowa Senate and gubernatorial races are locked in a tight battle, based on a new survey. The poll, which Suffolk University in Boston conducted from Aug. 20-23, found that 45 percent of 500 respondents backed GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson in the Senate race, while 41 percent supported Democratic…95%match12¢+8%
Iowa Senate, governor races tight in new polling
Unexpected developments in Texas, a "red state," in the US midterm elections: a close race between the Democratic candidate and a conservative stronghold.
Cook moves the Iowa governor race to *lean Democrat.* • • Both the Iowa and Texas Senate races are rated toss ups.
Senator Moody is right. Florida Democrats just told Maine, Michigan and Minnesota to hold their beer— it wanted the sharpest contrast in all of the Senate races and the farthest left radical. It’s close but DSA’s biggest win is in Florida especially since Graham Platner crash out.
Fox News Poll: A Senate battle looms in Michigan
In the DDHQ Forecast, the Texas Senate race is a Toss Up, with both candidates having a virtually even chance to win. • • James Talarico has gained in recent weeks; as recently as July 23, Paxton had a 60% probability to win.
The US electoral map could see shifts before the midterm elections... Ohio leans towards the Democrats, and the ousting of Republican Senator John Cornyn gives them a historic opportunity in Texas.
With the midterm elections approaching, Ohio leans toward Democrats in a vacant Republican seat, and Texas opens a gap after John Cornyn's disqualification.
Live: Michigan Senate race turns into unexpected nail-biter
Live: Why Michigan’s Senate race might come down to the wire
(Bloomberg) -- The US Justice Department sent election monitors to four Michigan cities on Tuesday as the state holds a closely watched primary that will set the November lineup for an open US Senate seat — one of the most competitive contests of the 2026 midterms.
Michigan’s 2026 Senate race remains a toss-up, according to an EPIC-MRA poll: • • Haley Stevens 44% • Mike Rogers 42% • Rogers leads Abdul El-Sayed 46%-43% in a separate matchup.
Crucial Senate race could come down to Michigan’s Black voters
The DDHQ Forecast rates Georgia's Senate race as Likely Democratic. • • Incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff has a 77% win probability, with a projected final margin of 53% for Ossoff and 47% for Republican Mike Collins.
In 2024, Nebraska independent @OsbornForNE came within 7 points of defeating a GOP senator even as Trump won by 21 pts. • • He's running again in '26. Can he prevail in a bluer year? • • “Ugh,â€� Sen. Deb Fischer said. “I think Nebraskans see through this guy.â€� • •
Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves the Georgia Senate race to **Likely** Democratic
Republican Ken Paxton is the narrow favorite in the Texas Senate race, which the DDHQ Forecast rates as a Toss Up. • • Paxton has a 58% chance to win this race, which is one of the major Democratic targets this cycle.
In the DDHQ Forecast, Susan Collins is favored to defeat the Democratic nominee in Maine's Senate election. • • She has a 53% probability of winning, while the Democratic nominee has a 47% win probability.
Asked Jon @Ossoff about this poll and whether he thinks he’s winning Georgia by 9: “This is, and will be, the closest and most competitive Senate race in the country. And every single day, relentlessly, I am running like I'm behind.”
NEW: Brand new @FoxNews power rankings give us a look at the landscape ahead of the November midterms. • - Dems up 4 points over GOP in party preference, a 5 point swing against GOP since 2024. • - Senate likely to be decided by AK, IA, OH, & ME • - Dems still in good shape to retake the House, but GOP losses may be blunted by redistricting wins. 16 toss up races in House. • - GOP hasn’t won a Senate seat in Michigan since 1996. • - Dems haven’t won a Senate seat in Texas since 1990.
NEW — Could Michigan save the Senate GOP majority? Wolverine State now seen as best GOP pickup opportunity as their Georgia hopes dwindle & the Mich. Dem primary gets ugly • • “We are defying the national trend for Republicans to be down a little bit,” Rogers tells me in Mich. • •
The DDHQ Forecast has Susan Collins as a slight favorite in the Maine Senate race. She has a 53% win probability, while the Democrats have a 47% win probability.
The DDHQ Forecast has Republican Ken Paxton as a narrow favorite in the Texas Senate race, with a 57% win probability. • • The projected vote share is 51% for Paxton, and 49% for Democrat James Talarico.
According to our model, Democrat Roy Cooper is the favorite to win the North Carolina Senate race, with a win probability of 72%. • • The projected vote share is 52% for Cooper and 48% for Republican Michael Whatley.
SENATE • • Republicans are narrowly favored to win the Senate. • • Republicans - 57% probability • Democrats - 43% probability • • Democrats are favored to flip North Carolina, and five states (Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas) are Tossups. • •
What is this event about?
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.