Closest Senate Race (of listed options)?
Resolved16as of
This hub tracks 16 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Talarico leads Paxton by 2 points in tightening Texas Senate race: Survey State Rep. James Talarico (D-Texas) is leading state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R-Texas) by just two points among likely voters, according to a new Fox News poll. The Democrat’s lead is within the poll’s 3 percent margin of error and shows a tight race in the Lone Star State. 51 percent of likely voters support…
Ossoff's strength in Georgia is especially notable compared to the competitive race in Michigan. Those are the 2 Trump-won states Democrats are defending on the Senate map. • • You can see DDHQ's Senate forecast here: •
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Democrat Sherrod Brown Up 8 Points In Ohio Senate Race (Updated Daily). • Trump has a 37% average approval rating in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.
Forecasted flips: • Alaska: 60% D • Maine: 53% D • North Carolina: 81% D • Ohio: 51% D • Texas: 57% D • • Find the full forecast on Votes:
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Progressive El-Sayed Up 4 Points In Michigan Senate Race (Updated Daily). • Trump has a 37% average approval rating in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.
Trump carried Alaska by 13 points in 2024. But Democrat Mary Peltola is now a slight favorite to flip its Senate seat. • • The DDHQ Forecast gives Peltola a 61% shot of defeating Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, making #AKSen the Democrats' 2nd-most likely flip after #NCSen.
Live: The national view on the North Carolina Senate race is that the Republican nominee, Michael Whatley, is running out of time to show he can narrow the race before G.O.P.-aligned groups redirect their money to other states.
UVA’s crystal ball moves their race rating on Iowa Senate race to Toss Up and Michigan Senate to Leans Dem • • SENATE • MI Toss-up > Leans D • IA Leans R > Toss-up • KS Likely R > Leans R • • @kkondik
UVA’s crystal ball moves their race rating on Iowa Senate race to Toss Up and Michigan Senate to Leans Dem • • SENATE • MI Toss-up > Leans D • IA Leans R > Toss-up • KS Likely R > Leans R • • @kkondik
Ohio (Special)Ohio’s gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races are neck and neck in new polling released this week. The Bowling Green State University (BGSU) survey found the Democratic candidates in these races hold 3-point leads over their GOP opponents among likely voters in the state. However, when asked about who is most likely to win, the Republicans…91%match10¢-100%
Ohio governor, Senate races nearly tied: Poll
New - Alaska Senate (RCV) Field 39% Dan Sullivan (Inc) 39% Daniel J. Sullivan 7% Heikes 6% Rasmussen - LV - 9/13-9/14
New Hampshire Senate race is a toss up now
Minnesota's Open Senate Race Is Suddenly A Coin Flip, New Polls Show
A historic close race is expected for the midterm elections... Strong opposition to the Trump administration in Republican stronghold Texas; the actions of Christians will likely determine the outcome.
In our latest forecast update, Sherrod Brown is the narrow favorite to win Ohio's Senate election. • • At the start of September, both candidates were tied at a 50% probability to win, and Husted was favored 58%-42% at the start of August.
New HampshireNew Hampshire and Rhode Island will serve up some of the last major primary contests of the 2026 election cycle, showcasing a likely upset in the Rhode Island governor’s race and bitter battles in the contest for retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D-N.H.) seat. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) and scientist Karishma Manzur will face off for the…94%match3¢-100%
New Hampshire Senate race tightens, Rhode Island governor on track to lose: 5 primaries to watch
Texas's Senate race is just about a dead heat in Decision Desk HQ's 2026 midterm forecast. Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico each have a 50% shot at winning the Lone Star State.
IowaThe Democratic and Republican candidates in the Iowa Senate and gubernatorial races are locked in a tight battle, based on a new survey. The poll, which Suffolk University in Boston conducted from Aug. 20-23, found that 45 percent of 500 respondents backed GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson in the Senate race, while 41 percent supported Democratic…95%match12¢-100%
Iowa Senate, governor races tight in new polling
Unexpected developments in Texas, a "red state," in the US midterm elections: a close race between the Democratic candidate and a conservative stronghold.
Cook moves the Iowa governor race to *lean Democrat.* • • Both the Iowa and Texas Senate races are rated toss ups.
Senator Moody is right. Florida Democrats just told Maine, Michigan and Minnesota to hold their beer— it wanted the sharpest contrast in all of the Senate races and the farthest left radical. It’s close but DSA’s biggest win is in Florida especially since Graham Platner crash out.
Fox News Poll: A Senate battle looms in Michigan
In the DDHQ Forecast, the Texas Senate race is a Toss Up, with both candidates having a virtually even chance to win. • • James Talarico has gained in recent weeks; as recently as July 23, Paxton had a 60% probability to win.
The US electoral map could see shifts before the midterm elections... Ohio leans towards the Democrats, and the ousting of Republican Senator John Cornyn gives them a historic opportunity in Texas.
With the midterm elections approaching, Ohio leans toward Democrats in a vacant Republican seat, and Texas opens a gap after John Cornyn's disqualification.
Live: Michigan Senate race turns into unexpected nail-biter
Live: Why Michigan’s Senate race might come down to the wire
(Bloomberg) -- The US Justice Department sent election monitors to four Michigan cities on Tuesday as the state holds a closely watched primary that will set the November lineup for an open US Senate seat — one of the most competitive contests of the 2026 midterms.
What is this event about?
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.