What will SpaceX (SPCX) hit in August 2026?↑ $135
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$4Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
SpaceX $SPCX back above its $135 IPO price:
$SPCX - SPACEX RETAIL INVESTORS TURN NET SELLERS • • Retail investors sold a net $4.5 million of SpaceX shares on Friday, their first day of net selling since the company’s June IPO, according to Vanda Research. • • The reversal comes as enthusiasm around the listing fades. • • After initially surging 67% above its $135 IPO price, SpaceX has surrendered those gains and now trades more than 22% below its debut price.
$SPCX - SPACEX SHARES UP 5%; ARGUS RESEARCH RAISES TO BUY
Investors who clung to SpaceX shares after they fell below their initial public offering price are bracing for another potential blow as $101 billion worth of shares become available for trading tomorrow, Thursday. The lifting of restrictions on up to 911.5 million shares comes as volatility sent the stock tumbling after its first quarterly earnings report caused it to drop 10% in trading today. The high anticipation of the lifting of restrictions, coupled with the high valuation, attracted a wave of short sellers, with short selling reaching 35% of the total shares available for trading. According to data compiled by S3 Partners, this skepticism has resulted in a $5.3 billion book profit after the stock price fell 38% from its high on June 16, according to the agency. Bloomberg #Arabic_Business
SpaceX extends decline to 11% on lockup expiration and capex spending fears. • The company reported no BTC sales in the second quarter, but shares fell before the open as investors focused on capital spending, free cash flow pressure and a looming insider lockup expiry.
$SPCX - BOFA REAFFIRMS BUY ON SPACEX • • BofA Securities reiterated its Buy rating and $235 price target on SpaceX after stronger-than-expected Q2 results. • • The firm said revenue and profitability exceeded expectations, while management reinforced its long-term growth outlook, including $100B run-rate revenue by December 2026 and a $1T revenue target by 2030. • • Despite concerns over higher capex and AI/Starlink monetization, BofA remains bullish on SpaceX's competitive position and raised its forecasts.
$SPCX | SpaceX Q2 26 Earnings: • • • Revenue: $7.8B (est $6.81B) • • Adjusted EBITDA: $3.5B (est $2.0B) • • Capex: $18.37B (est $18.58B) • • AI Segment Operating Loss: $1.26B (est loss $2.39B) • • Starlink Subscribers: 12M (est 12.19M) • • Backlog: $47.5B • • Cash, Cash Equivalents And Securities: $100B • • Expects Cursor Deal To Close In Q3 • • Reached 12M Starlink Subscribers At End Of Q2
SpaceX just posted its first earnings report as a public company. • • → Revenue: $7.8B vs $6.83B expected • → Adjusted EBITDA: $3.5B vs $2.07B expected • • SPCXon is one of many Ondo Stocks with real 24/7 trading, weekends and overnight included.
Since its first trade on June 12, SpaceX has lost over $500 billion in market cap, a stunning blow to retail investors who jumped into Elon Musk’s rocket company at their first opportunity. The stock is coming off its fourth straight weekly loss and is more than 50% off its intraday high. • • More details:
$SPCX - SPACEX FACES LOCK-UP SELLING PRESSURE • • SpaceX shares are under pressure as insider lock-up expirations begin on August 6. • • Around 20–30% of locked shares will become eligible for sale initially, with staggered unlocks lifting tradable shares to roughly 40% by December 2026. • • The stock has already fallen below its IPO price, while investors await its first earnings report after Tuesday's close.
$SPCX - SPACEX FACES LOCK-UP SELLING PRESSURE • • SpaceX shares are under pressure as insider lock-up expirations begin on August 6. • • Around 20–30% of locked shares will become eligible for sale initially, with staggered unlocks lifting tradable shares to roughly 40% by December 2026. • • The stock has already fallen below its IPO price, while investors await its first earnings report after Tuesday's close.
Where does the news lean?
24YES14NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during August 2026, any 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the SpaceX (SPCX) "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
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