Who will be in the Burnham cabinet?Shabana Mahmood

ResolvedOutcome: YesVol$2KResolvedas of

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This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

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30 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

YESalarabiya98%match100¢
Following his official appointment, Shabana Mahmood has been reappointed as Home Secretary in the British Prime Minister Andy Burnham's government.
YESSky Reporter97%match100¢
Cabinet so far: • Chancellor - John Healey • Foreign - Ed Miliband • Home - Shabana Mahmood • Work & Pensions - Pat McFadden • Health - Yvette Cooper • CDL & First Sec of State - Lou Haigh
YESalhadath98%match100¢
Following his official appointment, Shabana Mahmood has been reappointed as Home Secretary in the British Prime Minister Andy Burnham's government.
YEStheguardian.com97%match98¢+2%
Live: Shabana Mahmood said the post of home secretary is “the best job in the business”, after Andy Burnham kept her in the role. In a post on X, Mahmood said she wou
YESTimes Reporter93%match98¢+2%
Shabana Mahmood was never formally offered the job of chancellor and "has been made clear throughout this process her desire to remain home secretary," a source close to her said.
YESnytimes.com98%match98¢+2%
Live: Shabana Mahmood will keep her job as home secretary, a signal that Burnham is largely backing her efforts to crack down on legal and illegal migration with a sweeping overhaul of asylum and settlement rules. Those rules are opposed by many members of the progressive left in the Labour Party.
YESAsharq96%match98¢+2%
British Prime Minister's Office: Shabana Mahmood appointed Home Secretary
YESBBC95%match98¢+2%
Ed Miliband becomes UK foreign secretary as Shabana Mahmood keeps job as home secretary • • Follow live:
YESGuardian Reporter97%match98¢+2%
BREAKING: Ed Miliband becomes foreign secretary. Shabana Mahmood reinstated home secretary. Louise Haigh confirmed as CDL and first secretary of state.
YESGuardian Reporter97%match98¢+2%
BREAKING: Ed Miliband becomes foreign secretary. Shabana Mahmood as home secretary. Louise Haigh confirmed as CDL and first secretary of state.
YESinews.co.uk95%match98¢+2%
Live: Shabana Mahmood remains Home Secretary
YESbbc.com94%match98¢+2%
Live: Shabana Mahmood reappointed as Home Secretary
Ed Miliband is new Foreign Secretary while Shabana Mahmood remains Home Secretary
YESLBC Reporter95%match98¢+2%
The King has been pleased to approve the following appointments: • Rt Hon Ed Miliband MP as Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs • Rt Hon Louise Haigh MP as First Secretary of State, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, and Minister for the Cabinet Office • Rt Hon Shabana Mahmood MP will remain as Secretary of State for the Home Department. • Rt Hon Darren Jones MP and Rt Hon Nick Thomas-Symonds MP have left the Government
YESThe Mirror Reporter98%match98¢+2%
Burnham Cabinet taking shape • • John Healey as Chancellor • • Ed Miliband as Foreign Secretary • • Lousie Haigh - a close Burnham ally - returns to Cabinet as First Secretary of State, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, and Minister for the Cabinet Office • • Shabana Mahmood remains at Home Secretary
YESThe Mirror Reporter98%match98¢+2%
NEW: Shabana Mahmood stays as Home Secretary • • Staunch Burnham ally Louise Haigh becomes First Secretary of State, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, and Minister for the Cabinet Office
YESBloomberg Reporter93%match98¢+2%
Confirmed Louise Haigh as CDL AND First Secretary of State • • And Shabana Mahmood MP remains as Home Secretary
YESThe Sun Reporter95%match98¢+2%
Ed Miliband foreign secretary • • Shabana Mahmood stays as Home Secretary
YESTimes Reporter97%match100¢
Andy Burnham's policy blitz next week as he seeks to get his Premiership started with a bang: • • * Cost of living: Energy bill cuts - possibly removing VAT or pushing older wind and solar farms onto fixed-price contracts. Sounds like they're looking at cuts to bus fares across the board - could we see the return of the £2 cap? • • * Public control of water and energy companies. Doesn't sound like full-blown nationalisation. Mutualisation has been discussed with emphasis on ensuring local areas have control • • * North Sea oil and gas: Burnham will make a day one announcement on intention to have more drilling. What form that takes is not yet clear - Rosebank/ Jackdaw, tiebacks, new drilling licences are all on the table. Sounds like a significant shift • • * Social care: Burnham intent on 'grasping the nettle'. Sounds like he wants to build a cross-party consensus. Last time he held talks privately with Andrew Lansley before the Tories turned on him publicly over 'death tax'. He has learned the lesson and will be upfront in his approach • • * Council housebuilding: Burnham's language shifted subtly in his speech on Friday, as @PickardJE picked up, to extend to both council housing and social housing. Either way it sounds like he intends to repurpose and bolster the £39billion budget for social and affordable homes • • * No 10 North: Devolution will be at the heart of his pitch. He's going to spend part of the week at the new No 10 North site in Manchester to symbolise his approach. It sounds like they're co-opting one of the GCHQ buildings • • * The winners: Shabana Mahmood expected to be Chancellor. Lou Haigh gets CDL. Johnny Reynolds gets beefed up business department after DSIT is scrapped. Lucy Powell in line to be DPM although discussions ongoing. Anneliese Midgley expected to become chair of the Labour Party. Wes Streeting could return to health but is also being mooted for MOD • • * Angela Rayner would take 'some persuading' to go to health. An ally pointed to recent interventions on devolution, regional inequality and the cost of living, including proposals on social care that focus on local government and mayors. Not clear if she will get housing though - Miatta Fahnbulleh linked to role • • * Some of Starmer’s most loyal allies are expected to leave government entirely, including Steve Reed, the housing secretary; Darren Jones, the chief secretary to the prime minister; Peter Kyle, the business secretary; Lord Hermer, the attorney-general; and Liz Kendall, the science and technology secretary. The future of David Lammy, the deputy prime minister and justice secretary, is also unclear • •
YESTimes Reporter94%match100¢
Times weekend read on how Labour descended into a week of infighting before Burnham’s premiership has even begun: • • * Burnham says he wants to ‘eradicate the ‘insidious’ briefing culture in Westminster. But the vacuum left by delaying announcing appointments has only fuelled it • • * One minister who is long in the tooth said that it had been even worse than the TB-GBs • • * Such is the lack of hard information - only Burnham and a handful of his closest allies know the detail of his plans for government - that ministers have taken to asking journalists if they have heard anything about their futures • • * Ed Miliband has been the subject of a vituperative briefing campaign as senior allies of Burnham did everything in their power to stop him from becoming chancellor • • * Some critics claimed he would pose a genuine threat to the nation if he entered No 11. Others said he would become a lightning rod for criticism of the government and would be a toxic and divisive figure. He was variously derided for being “too left-wing”, for his “ideological obsession” with net zero and for being a “north London liberal” • • * On Monday there was a shift in tone. The Times revealed that those campaigning to stop Miliband had claimed victory. Burnham, they said, had been convinced that appointing Miliband would be a mistake and was expected to opt for Shabana Mahmood • • * Burnham is opting for someone who does even explicitly want the job. Mahmood had had to be persuaded to leave her berth at the home office, a job she loves and regards as unfinished business. She is said to be concerned about whether her successor will push ahead with her migration reforms • • * He finds himself in the extraordinary position of effectively attempting to persuade someone into one of the most powerful roles in the country • • * Miliband is said to have taken Burnham’s putative decision badly. “It is a bitter blow,” one MP who supports him said. “He can read the runes as much as anyone else.” Team Miliband did not comment. His allies have gone on the offensive, publicly questioning Mahmood’s suitability for the role • • * Burnham lining up Miliband as foreign secretary. But US has significant concerns • • * Burnham will go big next week with a policy blitz. Cuts to energy bills, bus fares, new oil and gas drilling in North Sea, plans to overhaul social care and devolution • • * He will spent part of week in new No 10 North at GCHQ site in Manchester in a symbol of how he intends to proceed • • * One source said that there had been discussions about scrapping the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, rolling science and innovation back into business and technology back into the Department for Culture, Media and Sport • • * “It’s always been a slightly chaotic department,” one Burnham ally said. “It’s lurched from being a tech booster to a tech blocker. Burnham is clear on this — he will put workers and jobs before Silicon Valley.” • • * What of Starmer? His official position is that he will stay on as the Labour MP for Holborn & St Pancras for the rest of this parliament. However, some believe that he will quit in relatively short order. They say he is not rich and needs to find a new home after firebombing of his Kentish Town residence • •
YESBloomberg Reporter93%match100¢
NEW: Bloomberg Saturday read with the great @ChaplainChloe • • — Andy Burnham wanted to take over on a wave of hope, good vibes and a promise to end the culture of infighting that sank Keir Starmer. Extraordinarily, that optimism is fading before he’s even taken office. • • — Even some Burnham supporters are already concerned his transition into No10 has been dominated by indecision, a policy vacuum and a power grab by his inner circle. At the centre of it is the remarkable falling out with Ed Miliband and a growing rebellion on the Labour soft-left, the faction that fought to get him the job in the first place. • • — Labour MPs and aides have a sense of foreboding that, far from representing a break from Starmer, Burnham is already succumbing to the same problems. Labour is united on the need for him to succeed but there’s mounting anxiety, one says. Another warns some of his earliest supporters are already starting to lose faith in the project. • • — Burnham tried to get ahead of the doubts yesterday, vowing to end the “insidious” culture of briefings, disunity and “point-scoring.” He insisted he had a plan. That followed his email to the PLP where he promised to be an inclusive team player. • • — But even people who support Burnham say it rings hollow and raises red flags. Several protest how his inner circle are conducting themselves. They say his close advisers have cut broader allies out of conversations about his plans. There are complaints about a top-down, ultra-centralised and opaque operation with an iron grip on power, blocking perceived rivals from jobs, the opposite of the inclusive approach he publicly espouses. • • — Labour officials say Burnham has already amassed a dangerously long list of internal enemies. The roll call of people with axes to grind may soon include Keir Starmer and his loyalists, Miliband, Rachel Reeves, Angela Rayner, who is outside of Burnham’s circle, as well as Wes Streeting and Yvette Cooper if they aren’t given top jobs. That is big and broad range of powerful opponents to have before you’ve even entered No10. • • — One aide says it was unnecessary to have put so many noses out of joint and that the disquiet is becoming unsustainable. Several warn Burnham risks losing the support of key figures in the party and inviting a leadership challenge before the next election, an extraordinary prospect given Labour was elected on a promise to end the Tory chaos. • • — The indecision and lack of transparency on appointments has caused nothing short of a meltdown among his allies who expect to get jobs. The fallout with Miliband is infuriating the Labour left who already feel badly let down. Another warns if this is how he treats the person who helped him become PM, it doesn’t bode well for the rest of the party. • • — Others say Burnham has made a bad error in appointing men to most of the senior roles in his No10 operation. There is disbelief he has reappointed nearly all of Starmer’s senior male aides and none of the senior women, despite his campaign pledging to end what they called a “boys’ club” in No10. • • — Shabana Mahmood as chancellor risks upsetting all sides, one source says. Many on the left consider her a right-winger due to her immigration stance, but moderates say in fact she holds left-wing economic views that will take the country in the wrong direction. • • — A Labour source says that when the history of Burnham’s transition into power is written, the question will be: “Were they left with too little time to think about all of this, or too much?" • •
YESTimes Reporter98%match100¢
Exclusive: • • Andy Burnham is facing a revolt from his core support on the Labour left over his plans to appoint Shabana Mahmood over Ed Miliband as chancellor amid claims that she lacks an economic vision and is too divisive for the role • • Burnham is expected to confirm Mahmood, the home secretary, as his chancellor on Monday after being warned that Miliband risks becoming a lightning rod for criticism of the government • • However, Mahmood, who is on the right of the Labour Party, has never held an economic position in government and has said relatively little about her fiscal views in the past. Her hardline immigration reforms have proved particularly contentious on the left • • A senior ally of Burnham said: “Shabana has no sense of the economics. It’s just not something she’s ever spoken about. She’s not collaborative. It’s not clear how she would drive the machine.” • • Another Labour MP said: “It’s baffling a lot of people because nobody knows what her views are on the economy. Does she even have any? She’s never done a speech or intervention. It’s just absolutely bizarre and I can’t see her as a sensible appointment.” • • Rachael Maskell, a Labour MP on the left wing of the party and the first to endorse Burnham as Sir Keir Starmer’s successor last summer, said that appointing Mahmood would be a mistake • • “Ed has Treasury experience and he’s been able to bring our party together around some very difficult issues, really advancing the whole climate agenda and winning the argument. • • “Shabana, on the other hand, hasn’t brought our party together. Even this week many of us couldn’t support the legislation she is putting through [on immigration]. • • “She hasn’t got the level of skill and experience to provide the leadership that is needed in the Treasury. Ed has Treasury experience. That really does matter. Ed shines well above Shabana. It would be a mistake to appoint Shabana.” • • Allies of Mahmood rejected the criticism and highlighted her record in “driving through” policies and delivering at the Home Office. “The fact she is willing to do what is right rather than what is popular is a very good trait,” one ally said • •
YESThe i Paper Reporter97%match100¢
Exclusive: A senior Labour backbencher has called on Andy Burnham to cull ministers from Sir Keir Starmer’s government, arguing that only a “real change at the top of government” can deliver the new politics that has been promised. • • Jon Trickett has issued a dramatic challenge to Burnham on the eve of his coronation as Labour leader, arguing that he must not simply reshuffle ministers who embodied Starmer’s approach, but instead install a new leadership team capable of delivering a fundamentally different political project. • • His intervention comes as Burnham prepares to appoint his first cabinet next week. The i Paper exclusively revealed yesterday that Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, is currently in poll position to become his chancellor – amid claims he has passed over Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, who was the early front-runner to take over the Treasury. Instead, Miliband is now tipped for a move to the Foreign Office. • • Other members of Starmer’s current Cabinet expected to be given jobs include Lucy Powell, Lisa Nandy, Wes Streeting and Rachel Reeves, who is widely expected to see her job as chancellor downgraded to a lesser cabinet role. • • The expected appointment of Mahmood to the Treasury has already sparked a backlash among some within the Parliamentary Labour Party, who see her as too right-wing.
YESITV Reporter98%match100¢
Shabana Mahmood is one of the outstanding politicians of this generation. She is admired across the political spectrum. • • This morning the Home Secretary is cited everywhere, including this morning’s splash in the Financial Times, as Andy Burnham’s chancellor. • • Reaction in the gilt or government bond market this morning? Zilch. • • Reaction among Labour MPs across all wings of the party, left, right and centre? Eek. • • Why? • • Because successful governments of the past forty plus year have all had at the centre powerful chancellors with a vision of how the economy works, from Howe, to Lawson, to Brown to Osborne. • • Visions all different. Ability to drive important change all shared. • • And although Mahmood may have such a vision and a plan, she has shown no evidence of it. • • She did a brief stint more than ten years ago shadowing junior Treasury ministers, but she has never evinced any great interest in or manifested any solutions for the great challenge faced by Burnham: how to end almost twenty years of stagnation in productivity, growth and living standards? • • So what on earth is going on? Why would Burnham choose her? • • Here is the shorthand. • • His ally-who-would-be-chancellor, Ed Miliband, is seen as too disliked by too many powerful interests, from trade union leaders, to business leaders, to investors and the right-wing media. • • That he almost certainly has the best qualifications to be chancellor - deep knowledge of how the Treasury works and an economic vision - is seen as not enough. • • But why rule out other candidates, such as Yvette Cooper, who does have deep experience of the Treasury, or Wes Streeting, who has articulated a programme that actually looks like a growth plan? • • Or why not skip a generation, as Cameron did with Osborne, and appoint someone who knows a thing or two about economics, and has been an important Burnhamite, such as Miatta Fahnbulleh. • • Well, according to those who know Burnham’s mind, he and his transition team just want someone at Number 11 who will simply execute their will. The plan is to drive the economy from 10 Downing Street. • • On this model, poor Mahmood would be a cipher for Burnham and his cabal. And she would be a fabulous cipher at that, because her revealed skill at the Home Office is to brook no opposition from officials and to drive reform. • • If this is Burnham’s plan, it is hugely risky, and I suspect it would end in tears. • • Burnham won’t personally have the time to micromanage the Treasury. No prime minister does. • • And the Treasury, like no other department, can only be led by someone - the Chancellor - with personal expert authority and a plan. In all other circumstances, the Chancellor is led by officials. • • Also I very much doubt Mahmood would allow herself to be any prime minister’s puppet or cipher in any case. • • By far the biggest decision Burnham will take in his first days as prime minister is his choice of chancellor. • • It is possible he has an insight into Mahmood’s economic expertise that is yet to be seen and heard by the rest of the world - or even by his most intimate allies. • • It is no exaggeration to say the success or failure of his government will depend on it.
YEStheguardian.com92%match100¢
Live: Markets react to Shabana Mahmood as frontrunner for chancellor
YESzerohedge99%match98¢+2%
*SHABANA MAHMOOD TO BE NAMED UK CHANCELLOR BY ANDY BURNHAM: FT
YESNews99%match98¢+2%
*SHABANA MAHMOOD TO BE NAMED UK CHANCELLOR BY ANDY BURNHAM: FT
YESReuters99%match98¢+2%
UK’s Burnham is Set to Name Interior Minister Shabana Mahmood as His Finance Minister, FT Reports
YESft.com99%match98¢+2%
Shabana Mahmood set to be named UK chancellor by Andy Burnham
YESiPaper Reporter99%match98¢+2%
EXC: Andy Burnham's team has “pretty much locked in” senior Cabinet picks • • - Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is now expected to become Chancellor of the Exchequer • • - Opponents of Ed Miliband campaigned to stop his appointment as Chancellor. He is expected to be offered Foreign Secretary. • • - A Labour insider sympathetic to Miliband said his prospects of becoming Chancellor had suffered not so much because of scepticism about his net zero agenda, but because many in the party had not forgiven him for Labour's 2015 general election defeat. • • - Also in line for Cabinet positions are Louise Haigh who will be in a “beefed up" role as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, a senior Cabinet Office minister who drives cross-government policy and collaboration. • • - Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Labour’s deputy leader Lucy Powell and former Housing Secretary Angela Rayner are all in line for Cabinet positions. • • - Cabinet expected to be announced late Monday afternoon

Where does the news lean?

53YES0NO6neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is confirmed as a minister in the Cabinet of the United Kingdom formed as a result of Andy Burnham being appointed Prime Minister. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, the individual must be appointed or reappointed to a cabinet position by the United Kingdom Monarch in the period between the official appointment of Andy Burnham as Prime Minister of the UK and the seventh day thereafter, 11:59 PM UTC. If the individual will continue to serve in a preexisting cabinet position without an explicit reappointment, their continuance in the Burnham cabinet must be confirmed by an official announcement or a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the specified timeframe to qualify. Any interim or caretaker cabinet position will not count toward the resolution of this market. To qualify, the listed individual must be appointed to a cabinet minister position. The position of an ordinary minister who also attends cabinet meetings, or any other unpaid ministerial position will not be considered for resolution. If Andy Burnham is not appointed as Prime Minister of the UK by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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