Who will be in the Burnham cabinet?Darren Jones
ResolvedOutcome: No$5Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
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8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Exclusively in my column this evening: • • - The Manc-takeover. There are now more Cabinet ministers with Manchester worker bee tattoos (3) then there are Old Etonians (1) • • - Labour grumbling that although Burnham has appointed a record number of women to the Cabinet, outnumbering men for the first time at 12-11, he only gave one, Shabana Mahmood, a position in one of the Great Offices of State • • - How Louise Haigh is the most powerful woman in government • • - How Darren Jones, wearing his Bermuda shorts, made Burnham make clear his commitment to fiscal discipline by questioning whether his energy VAT cut stacks up • • - Has Burnham's brutal reshuffle created a faction of Starmerites ready to attack? • •
Breaking: • • Darren Jones, who was sacked yesterday as part of his purge of Starmer loyalists, points out that Andy Burnham’s pledge to scrap VAT on energy bills is effectively unfunded • • Burnham has said that the money will come from savings that would have been made to pay for digital ID, which he has scrapped • • But Jones say those savings are yet to be identified • • The inevitable result of yesterday’s purge of Starmer loyalists - Burnham has created some potentially powerful critics on his own backbenches
Darren Jones, who was sacked by Andy Burnham in his first reshuffle, suggests new PM’s energy bill plan isn’t funded…
Live: Darren Jones 'won't be part' of Burnham's cabinet
Live: Starmer ally Darren Jones sacked from Burnham's cabinet
Live: Darren Jones: Burnham called to tell me I won’t be part of his Cabinet
Update on who has left cabinet so far: Rachel Reeves - who we're told was offered another big job but turned it down - David Lammy, Richard Hermer, Peter Kyle, Steve Reed, Liz Kendall, Darren Jones. All expected really...
Andy Burnham's policy blitz next week as he seeks to get his Premiership started with a bang: • • * Cost of living: Energy bill cuts - possibly removing VAT or pushing older wind and solar farms onto fixed-price contracts. Sounds like they're looking at cuts to bus fares across the board - could we see the return of the £2 cap? • • * Public control of water and energy companies. Doesn't sound like full-blown nationalisation. Mutualisation has been discussed with emphasis on ensuring local areas have control • • * North Sea oil and gas: Burnham will make a day one announcement on intention to have more drilling. What form that takes is not yet clear - Rosebank/ Jackdaw, tiebacks, new drilling licences are all on the table. Sounds like a significant shift • • * Social care: Burnham intent on 'grasping the nettle'. Sounds like he wants to build a cross-party consensus. Last time he held talks privately with Andrew Lansley before the Tories turned on him publicly over 'death tax'. He has learned the lesson and will be upfront in his approach • • * Council housebuilding: Burnham's language shifted subtly in his speech on Friday, as @PickardJE picked up, to extend to both council housing and social housing. Either way it sounds like he intends to repurpose and bolster the £39billion budget for social and affordable homes • • * No 10 North: Devolution will be at the heart of his pitch. He's going to spend part of the week at the new No 10 North site in Manchester to symbolise his approach. It sounds like they're co-opting one of the GCHQ buildings • • * The winners: Shabana Mahmood expected to be Chancellor. Lou Haigh gets CDL. Johnny Reynolds gets beefed up business department after DSIT is scrapped. Lucy Powell in line to be DPM although discussions ongoing. Anneliese Midgley expected to become chair of the Labour Party. Wes Streeting could return to health but is also being mooted for MOD • • * Angela Rayner would take 'some persuading' to go to health. An ally pointed to recent interventions on devolution, regional inequality and the cost of living, including proposals on social care that focus on local government and mayors. Not clear if she will get housing though - Miatta Fahnbulleh linked to role • • * Some of Starmer’s most loyal allies are expected to leave government entirely, including Steve Reed, the housing secretary; Darren Jones, the chief secretary to the prime minister; Peter Kyle, the business secretary; Lord Hermer, the attorney-general; and Liz Kendall, the science and technology secretary. The future of David Lammy, the deputy prime minister and justice secretary, is also unclear • •
Where does the news lean?
4YES9NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is confirmed as a minister in the Cabinet of the United Kingdom formed as a result of Andy Burnham being appointed Prime Minister. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
To qualify, the individual must be appointed or reappointed to a cabinet position by the United Kingdom Monarch in the period between the official appointment of Andy Burnham as Prime Minister of the UK and the seventh day thereafter, 11:59 PM UTC. If the individual will continue to serve in a preexisting cabinet position without an explicit reappointment, their continuance in the Burnham cabinet must be confirmed by an official announcement or a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the specified timeframe to qualify.
Any interim or caretaker cabinet position will not count toward the resolution of this market.
To qualify, the listed individual must be appointed to a cabinet minister position. The position of an ordinary minister who also attends cabinet meetings, or any other unpaid ministerial position will not be considered for resolution.
If Andy Burnham is not appointed as Prime Minister of the UK by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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