Will Russia target Kyiv on...?August 19
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$5Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
A Geran-4 Seeker missile struck a Ukrainian Armed Forces electronic reconnaissance station near Kalinovka in the Kyiv region. The target was hit, the Defense Ministry noted. Video not loading? Watch in MAX [in reply to: This night, the Russian Armed Forces launched a massive strike with high-precision weapons and long-range UAVs. The attack targeted military industry enterprises, a transport and logistics center, and warehouses in Kyiv and the Kyiv region. In Kyiv, the following were damaged: the industrial enterprise Fire Point LLC, which produced components for long- and medium-range attack UAVs, and also assembled and stored boosters used in Flamingo cruise missiles; the trading and warehouse complex of the Ukrspetssystem company, which produced components for long- and medium-range attack UAVs, carried out large-unit assembly of aircraft-type UAVs, and also stored them; the assembly plant of the aviation industry, the Antonov State Enterprise, which produced An-196 "Lyuty" long-range aircraft-type UAV, which also developed and produced various types of manned aircraft; an ammunition depot that stored M-900 thermobaric aerial bombs, anti-tank mines and ammunition for Baba Yaga type UAVs. Struck in the Kyiv region: the Martusovka transport and logistics center - was engaged in the storage and distribution of dual-use goods, including for the production of long- and medium-range UAVs, robotic systems and electronic warfare systems; a fuel and lubricants depot in Brovary - which stored up to 8 thousand cubic meters of fuel intended for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In addition, on the evening of August 19, warehouses with military property. Zvezdanews in MAX]
186 ENEMY TARGETS SHOTDOWN/SUPPRESSED On the night of August 20 (from 18:00 on August 19), the enemy attacked the Kyiv region with missiles that enter the target along a ballistic trajectory: Onyx, Zircon, Iskander-M, S-400 from Kursk, Rostov, Bryansk regions, 36 Kh-101/Iskander-K/Kh-59 cruise/aviation missiles from the airspace of Vologda, Kursk, Belgorod regions, 8 Kalibr cruise missiles from Novorossiysk, two “Banderol” loitering munitions. As well as 168 strike UAVs of the Shahed type (almost half of them are jet), Gerber and simulator drones of the "Parody" type from the directions: Kursk, Millerovo, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - RF, TOT Donetsk, Gvardiyske - TOT AR Crimea. The main direction of the strike is the Kyiv region! The air attack was repelled by aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare and unmanned systems units, mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. According to preliminary data, as of 09:30, air defense shot down/suppressed 31 Kh-101/Iskander-K/Kh-59 cruise missiles, 8 Kalibr cruise missiles, two "Banderol" loitering munitions, as well as 145 enemy UAVs of the type Shahed, Gerbera and other types of drones in the north, south, east and center of the country. Hits by enemy air attack vehicles were recorded at 28 locations, as well as the fall of downed (fragments) at 2 locations. The attack is ongoing, several enemy UAVs are in the airspace. Follow safety rules!
Footage of the strike in Brovary, Kyiv Oblast – Russian Armed Forces hit a logistics center using a Geran-4 Siker UAV. Video not loading? Watch in MAX [in reply to: This night, the Russian Armed Forces launched a massive strike with high-precision weapons and long-range UAVs. The attack targeted military industry enterprises, a transport and logistics center, and warehouses in Kyiv and the Kyiv region. In Kyiv, the following were damaged: the industrial enterprise Fire Point LLC, which produced components for long- and medium-range attack UAVs, and also assembled and stored boosters used in Flamingo cruise missiles; the trading and warehouse complex of the Ukrspetssystem company, which produced components for long- and medium-range attack UAVs, carried out large-unit assembly of aircraft-type UAVs, and also stored them; the assembly plant of the aviation industry, the Antonov State Enterprise, which produced An-196 "Lyuty" long-range aircraft-type UAV, which also developed and produced various types of manned aircraft; an ammunition depot that stored M-900 thermobaric aerial bombs, anti-tank mines and ammunition for Baba Yaga type UAVs. Struck in the Kyiv region: the Martusovka transport and logistics center - was engaged in the storage and distribution of dual-use goods, including for the production of long- and medium-range UAVs, robotic systems and electronic warfare systems; a fuel and lubricants depot in Brovary - which stored up to 8 thousand cubic meters of fuel intended for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In addition, on the evening of August 19, warehouses with military property. Zvezdanews in MAX]
We present compelling arguments The Russian Ministry of Defense's MAKS channel – 24/7 combat operations. Join us! [in reply to: Tonight, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out a massive strike with high-precision weapons of land, air, sea-based and long-range unmanned aerial vehicles on military industry enterprises, a transport and logistics center and warehouses in the city of Kyiv and the Kyiv region. In the city of Kyiv, the following were damaged: industrial enterprise Fire Point LLC - which produced components for long- and medium-range attack UAVs, and also assembled and stored boosters used in Flamingo cruise missiles; trade and warehouse complex of the Ukrspetssystems company - which produced components for long- and medium-range attack UAVs, large-unit assembly of aircraft-type UAVs, as well as their storage; assembly Aviation industry enterprise Antonov State Enterprise – which produced the An-196 Lyuty long-range aircraft-type UAV, and also developed and manufactured various types of manned aircraft; Ammunition depot – which stored M-900 thermobaric aerial bombs, anti-tank mines, and ammunition for the Baba Yaga type UAV. Affected in the Kyiv region: Martusovka transport and logistics center (Zamler Group logistics center) – which stored and distributed dual-use goods, including those for the production of long- and medium-range UAVs, robotic systems, and electronic warfare systems; Brovary fuel and lubricants warehouse – which stored up to 8,000 cubic meters of fuel intended for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In addition, on the evening of August 19, warehouses containing military equipment were damaged in the ports of Chornomorsk and Yuzhny. Russian Ministry of Defense]
This night, the Russian Armed Forces launched a massive strike with precision weapons and long-range UAVs. The attack targeted military industry enterprises, a transport and logistics center, and warehouses in Kyiv and the Kyiv region. In Kyiv, the following were damaged: Fire Point LLC industrial enterprise – which produced components for long- and medium-range attack UAVs, and also assembled and stored boosters used in Flamingo cruise missiles; Ukrspetssystem company trading and warehouse complex – which produced components for long- and medium-range attack UAVs, carried out large-unit assembly of aircraft-type UAVs, and also stored them; Antonov State Enterprise aviation industry assembly plant – which produced aircraft-type UAVs long-range An-196 "Lyuty", and also carried out the development and production of manned aircraft of various types; ammunition depot - which stored M-900 thermobaric aerial bombs, anti-tank mines and ammunition for Baba Yaga type UAVs. Struck in the Kyiv region: the Martusovka transport and logistics center - which stored and distributed dual-use goods, including for the production of long- and medium-range UAVs, robotic systems and electronic warfare systems; a fuel and lubricants depot in Brovary - which stored up to 8 thousand cubic meters of fuel intended for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In addition, on the evening of August 19, warehouses with military property. Zvezdanews in MAX
Tonight, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out a massive strike with high-precision weapons of land, air, sea-based and long-range unmanned aerial vehicles on military industry enterprises, a transport and logistics center and warehouses in the city of Kyiv and the Kyiv region. In the city of Kyiv, the following were damaged: industrial enterprise Fire Point LLC - which produced components for long- and medium-range attack UAVs, and also assembled and stored boosters used in Flamingo cruise missiles; trade and warehouse complex of the Ukrspetssystems company - which produced components for long- and medium-range attack UAVs, large-unit assembly of aircraft-type UAVs, as well as their storage; aircraft assembly plant Antonov State Enterprise – which produced the An-196 Lyuty long-range aircraft-type UAV, and also developed and manufactured various types of manned aircraft; Ammunition depot – which stored M-900 thermobaric aerial bombs, anti-tank mines, and ammunition for the Baba Yaga type UAV. Affected in the Kyiv region: Martusovka transport and logistics center (Zamler Group logistics center) – which stored and distributed dual-use goods, including for the production of long- and medium-range UAVs, robotic systems, and electronic warfare systems; Brovary fuel and lubricants warehouse – which stored up to 8,000 cubic meters of fuel, intended for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In addition, on the evening of August 19, warehouses containing military equipment were hit in the ports of Chornomorsk and Yuzhny. Russian Ministry of Defense
Where does the news lean?
6YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv.
The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.
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