Next Secretary-General of the United NationsRafael Grossi
Open$35Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 24% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES24¢
NO76¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Rebecca Greenspan leads the race... 7 candidates to succeed Guterres, and indications point to a woman winning ========= The number of candidates to succeed Guterres has dropped to 7, with the door remaining open for new nominations before the selection process is finalized. The latest vote boosted the chances of women, and indications suggest that a woman will assume the position of UN Secretary-General for the first time in the organization's history. Rebecca Greenspan came in first place in the September 18 vote after receiving 9 votes, while Caroline Rodriguez Birkett received 8 votes. In the third round, Rafael Grossi received 5 votes in favor, 8 against, and 2 abstentions, while Olara Otuño received 5 votes in favor, 7 against, and 3 abstentions.
Rebecca Greenspan leads the race... 7 candidates to succeed Guterres, and indications point to a woman winning ========= The number of candidates to succeed Guterres has dropped to 7... with the door remaining open for new nominations before the selection process is finalized. The latest vote boosted the chances of women... and indications suggest that a woman will assume the position of UN Secretary-General for the first time in the organization's history. Rebecca Greenspan came in first place during the September 18 vote after receiving 9 votes... while Caroline Rodriguez Birkett received 8 votes. In the third round, Rafael Grossi received 5 votes in favor, 8 against, and 2 abstentions... while Olara Otuño received 5 votes in favor, 7 against, and 3 abstentions.
FWD from Fars International and Foreign Policy: Grossi's rival withdraws from the UN Secretary-General race Michele Bachelet, the first female president in Chile and former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, announced her withdrawal from the UN Secretary-General election. The first female president in Chile said in a video, "Some may believe that the time was not right for a candidate with the characteristics that I represented. However, I do not regret accepting this great challenge." With her withdrawal, there are now seven candidates (four women and three men) remaining for the UN Secretary-General position. Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is one of these candidates. @FarsNewsInt - Link
Where does the news lean?
1YES4NO11neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Next Secretary-General of the United Nations — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.