Which company has the best AI model end of October?OpenAI
Open$304Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
OpenAI Says It Won't Release Its Latest Model Yet Over Security Concerns: 'Didn't Quite Meet The Bar'. • The company has also paused training, evaluation and tool-enabled inference involving its most capable models after new incidents.
Has the machine reached humanity? OpenAI is nearing its biggest dream. Welcome to the age of AGI... With this phrase, OpenAI CEO Greg Brockman introduced the GPT-6 Astra model. He hinted that the world may be entering the early stages of artificial general intelligence. The problem is that technology companies and scientists don't even agree on the definition of AGI. OpenAI links it to surpassing humans in most economically useful tasks. If systems are capable in the future of performing most human work and assisting in invention and developing their capabilities, will AGI be the biggest economic boom in history or the biggest disruption the labor market has ever seen? #Arabic_Business
OPENAI'S PRESIDENT SAYS AGI MAY HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED, AND THAT THIS IS THE MODEL • • Greg Brockman told reporters that in a couple of years, when people look back and ask when AGI was created, he thinks the answer will be around now and possibly this model. • • OpenAI launched GPT-6 Astra Thursday and calls it the world's best computer use model. In the company's own tests it booked DMV appointments, searched job listings, and apartment hunted faster than the average person. • • Rollout starts with enterprise clients in the Daybreak early access program, then ChatGPT Plus, Pro, and Business. No word on free users. • • OpenAI is racing toward a planned IPO. So is Anthropic.
Where does the news lean?
10YES6NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
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