Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Open32as of
Market pricing makes Google the favorite at 72% across 32 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Meta unveils its most powerful model, Muse Wonder: comparable to GPT-6, Zuckerberg says it has reached the "cutting-edge" level of AI.
Meta Unveils High-Performance AI Model ‘Muse Wonder’… Ranks 2nd in Performance Evaluations
Meta Unveils High-Performance AI Model ‘Muse Wonder’… Ranks 2nd in Performance Evaluations
Meta Chases OpenAI and Antropics… Unveils AI Model 'Muse Wonder'
Gavin Baker on the AI race as the highest-stakes game of corporate chess ever played: • • "You've got to give Meta a lot of credit. They were out of the game, and they got back in the game. It's just kind of amazing." • • "Who could have imagined a year ago, when Gemini was ascendant, that Gemini wouldn't even be in the conversation, and Muse and Meta would be significantly ahead of them from a capability perspective." • • "Some people have made bad moves, they've made good moves. You've seen some people come out of the game, others come back in." • • "I don't know if we're going to call it multi-model, a hybrid model. I don't know what terminology the world is going to settle on, but I think that's the future." • • @GavinSBaker @DavidGeorge83
Meta Unveils First Frontier AI Model… “Implementing AI Assistant by Leveraging Long-Term Memory”
Science and Technology / Meta launches two new AI models with advanced capabilities
Meta Catches Up with OpenAI and Antropics... Unveils New AI Model 'Muse Wonder'
[UPDATE] US-based Meta's new AI "comes up to the forefront," narrowing the gap with Anthropique (first reported at 2026-10-12T21:13:37.400332800Z)
Meta Strikes While the Iron Is Hot... Announces New High-Performance AI Model Equipped with Muse
“This brings us to the forefront”: Meta says it has caught up with OpenAI and Anthropic with its latest AI model, and refuses to slow down
It won't be Meta, but prediction markets increasingly confident Google will have the best AI model by the end of the month (per Arena Overall benchmark).
It won't be Meta, but prediction markets increasingly confident Google will have the best AI model by the end of the month (per Arena Overall benchmark).
Meta launches the biggest and best AI models it has ever built
Artificial intelligence: Meta unveils a new "cutting-edge" technology model
[UPDATE] Meta unveils new frontier-class AI models to compete with OpenAI, Anthropic (first reported at 2026-10-12T17:00:15Z)
Live: Zuckerberg unveils Meta's most advanced AI models yet, designed to tackle complex
Meta Unveils New AI Models to Challenge OpenAI and Anthropic
META UNVEILS NEW AI MODEL TO CHALLENGE OPENAI AND ANTHROPIC • • Meta ($META ) has launched Muse Wonder, a new AI model it claims competes with the world's most advanced systems. • • Key developments: • • Performance: Meta claims Muse Wonder outperforms rival OpenAI and Anthropic models on several benchmarks. • Capabilities: Improved memory, reasoning and expertise in finance, health and law. • Pricing: Coming to Muse's $20 and $100 monthly subscription tiers. • Adoption: Muse has reached nearly 9 million downloads, but growth is slowing and user retention trails ChatGPT. • • Meta says the model will power its push into personal AI agents, intensifying competition with OpenAI, Google and Anthropic.
Meta Says New AI Model Is State-of-the-Art, Will Make Muse Agent Smarter -- WSJ
Meta unveils new frontier-class AI models to compete with OpenAI, Anthropic
Meta Unveils New Series of Advanced A.I. Models
Mistral publishes ML4 open weight model, claiming some capabilities surpass those of its Chinese counterparts.
$GOOGL | Google Is About To Roll Out A New AI Model. Employees Say They're Testing Another That's Way Better – @BusinessInsider •
Exclusive: Google is about to roll out a new AI model. Employees say they're testing another that's way better.
Artificial intelligence: Mistral is "just a few months away" from catching up with its American competitors, assures Arthur Mensch
The head of Mistral asserts that his company is "a few months away" from catching up with the American giants of artificial intelligence.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".