Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory (Lower Farage brackets)Farage <10%
ResolvedOutcome: No$829as of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
A landslide victory in Clacton... Farage regains his seat in the British Parliament %D9%82-%D9%83%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AC-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%B9%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A
Nigel Farage, leader of the right-wing Reform UK party, was re-elected in the House of Commons with more than double the votes of the "Trash Can Earl."
Nigel Farage, leader of the British Reform Party, won his seat in the British Parliament in the Clacton by-election by more than 22,000 votes, an election in which his main rival was a comic character named "Kent Beanface" who looks like a dustbin and which was boycotted by the main British parties. Reuters reported that Farage won 22,239 votes in the election. "Kent Beanface", a comic character created by a comedian, came in second with 9,455 votes. The by-election was held in Clacton, a coastal town in southern England. The main British political parties boycotted the contest, which made "Kent Beanface" Farage's main rival. Farage himself had prepared the ground for the election. According to Reuters, he sought to strengthen his position against allegations of financial irregularities.
Nigel Farage set for decisive but arguably empty victory in Clacton
Where does the news lean?
0YES13NO16neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
How did this market resolve?
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
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See all outcomes for Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory (Lower Farage brackets) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.