Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton?
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$32Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Senior Reform sources are pointing out that they managed to increase the number of votes in the Clacton by-election for Nigel Farage by 1,000 compared with the 2024 general election when there was a very slim chance of him losing. • One says there was “no jeopardy” once the main parties boycotted the by-election, which would normally make it harder to get the vote out. • He tells me: “If we had got fewer votes you would have crucified us. But we didn’t and you can’t.” • More coverage from me in Clacton on @GBNEWS.
Live: Farage sees Clacton vote share increase with other major parties absent
YESReuters97%match99¢+1%
UK’s Nigel Farage Regains Parliamentary Seat, Wins Clacton by-Election
Live: Treasury confirms Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton has been accepted
Live: Reeves accepts Farage’s resignation as Clacton MP
Where does the news lean?
4YES3NO32neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).