Which company has the #2 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)Moonshot
ResolvedOutcome: No$4Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
China's Moonshot AI gains on Anthropic, OpenAI with new low-cost model
From “News Items” from @EllisItems this AM ( • • “2. Financial Times: • • Chinese AI start-up Moonshot has released a large language model with capabilities approaching those of frontier US labs such as Anthropic, as the gap narrows between the two countries on state-of-the-art AI. • The Beijing-based group released Kimi K3, China’s largest AI model to date with 2.8 trillion parameters, on Thursday. The number of parameters refers to the size of the model’s neural network, with a higher count generally leading to greater capabilities. • • Anthropic has not disclosed its models’ parameters, but industry experts speculate its flagship Claude Opus 4.8 has 1.5 trillion-2 trillion parameters. • People with knowledge of the development said K3 would be freely available to download as a so-called open-weight model. • • K3 was beating Opus 4.8 and OpenAI’s GPT 5.5 in most coding and general AI agent benchmarks, according to results released by Moonshot. On most benchmarks it was still falling short of Fable, a powerful model that Anthropic briefly suspended after the US raised concerns over its hacking capabilities. (Source:
Chinese AI start-up Moonshot launches model challenging Anthropic’s lead
YESReuters92%match0¢
Moonshot is Scheduled to Release Kimi K3, China’s Largest AI Model to Date with 2tn-3tn Parameters, in the Coming Days-FT
YESReuters97%match0¢
Chinese AI Start-Up Moonshot to Launch Model Challenging Anthropic’s Lead-FT
Where does the news lean?
13YES0NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
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