2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally CandidateMarine Le Pen

ResolvedOutcome: YesVol$121KResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

47 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

YEStheguardian.com99%match93¢+8%
Marine Le Pen will run for election in 2027. Will she have to wear an electronic tag?
YESFrench Media99%match93¢+8%
BFMTV POLL 2027 Presidential Election: Nearly 60% of French people disapprove of Marine Le Pen's decision to run
YESafp99%match93¢+8%
EXPLAINED: Why is Marine Le Pen now able to run for the French presidency? • • After more than a year of uncertainty, a court ruling means the French far-right politician can run in the country’s 2027 presidential election. How has the situation been resolved, at least for now?
YESlefigaro.fr99%match93¢+8%
2027 Presidential Election: National Rally supporters endorse Marine Le Pen's candidacy but fear a disrupted campaign
YESFrench Media99%match93¢+8%
LIVE 2027 Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen says "no," she is not "playing for time"
YESalarabiya99%match93¢+8%
Hours after being convicted of embezzling European Parliament funds, far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen announced her intention to run for president of France in 2027.
YESFrench Media99%match93¢+8%
LIVE 2027 Presidential Election: Laure Lavalette, spokesperson for the National Rally, speaks of "great relief" after Marine Le Pen's candidacy
YESlefigaro.fr99%match93¢+8%
LIVE - 2027 Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen launches her campaign with Jordan Bardella in Sarthe this Wednesday
YESFrench Media99%match93¢+8%
LIVE 2027 Presidential Election: Now a candidate, Marine Le Pen makes her first campaign trip with Jordan Bardella after his appeal conviction
YESUkrainian Media99%match93¢+8%
Marine Le Pen announced that she will run for president of France in 2027 The leader of the French "National Union" said that she would file a cassation appeal against the court's decision and conduct a presidential campaign without an electronic bracelet. According to Le Pen, the appeal to the Court of Cassation suspends the execution of her sentence. So, tonight I am a candidate in the presidential election, — the politician announced on French television. Le Pen also assured that she no longer sees any scenario in which she would not be able to participate in the 2027 elections.
YESnewsdig.tbs.co.jp99%match93¢+8%
"There's no scenario in which I can't run for president," French far-right leader Marine Le Pen declared in a television appearance after her conviction, stating her intention to run in the 2027 spring presidential election.
YESVenezuela State-Backed TV99%match93¢+8%
Frenchwoman Marine Le Pen announces her presidential candidacy for 2027 Far-right politician Marine Le Pen announced her candidacy for the 2027 French presidential elections after an appeals court reduced her disqualification from 60 to 45 months, allowing her to run despite her conviction for misusing European Parliament funds.
YESchinesewsj99%match92¢+9%
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen has announced her plans to run in next year's presidential election. However, her comeback faces significant legal hurdles due to her previous conviction for misappropriating funds from the European Parliament.
YESsankei.com99%match95¢+5%
French President Marine Le Pen intends to run for president in 2027, despite a guilty verdict in her appeals court; she has indicated her intention to appeal.
YES47news.jp99%match94¢+6%
French far-right defendant Marine Le Pen announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election after conviction
YEStheguardian.com99%match94¢+6%
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen says she will run for president in 2027 – video
Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader of France, announced her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election.
YESNews99%match94¢+6%
Marine Le Pen, former leader of France's National Rally, has announced her candidacy for president following a ruling that restores her eligibility to run for office.
YESnikkei99%match94¢+6%
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen to run for president in 2027; leading in approval ratings, appeals in finance fraud trial
YESFrench Media99%match94¢+6%
Behind the scenes of Marine Le Pen's decision, officially a candidate for the 2027 presidential election
YES47news.jp99%match94¢+6%
French far-right politician Marine Le Pen announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election after conviction.
YESFrench Media99%match94¢+6%
LIVE 2027 Presidential Election: "For France, the Renaissance," Marine Le Pen's website and campaign poster unveiled
YESFrench Media99%match94¢+6%
2027 Presidential Election: Eric Ciotti, Eric Zemmour... The first reactions to Marine Le Pen's candidacy announcement
YESBelarus State News Agency99%match93¢+8%
Marine Le Pen has announced that she will run in the 2027 French presidential election [in reply to: A Paris court sentenced Marine Le Pen to three years in prison in a case involving the misuse of European Parliament funds]
YESUkrainska Pravda news outlet99%match95¢+5%
The informal leader of the French right-wing populist "National Union" Marine Le Pen has announced her intention to run for president for the fourth time. She announced this decision after the Paris appeals court ordered her to wear an electronic bracelet, confirming her conviction for misuse of public funds. Le Pen plans to participate in the 2027 presidential election after filing an appeal with the French Supreme Court. According to her, this step will allow her to postpone the execution of the sentence and allow her to campaign without the restrictions associated with the electronic bracelet subscribe
YESJ.Post / i24 Reporter99%match95¢+5%
Marine Le Pen announced: I will run in the presidential election
YESFrench Media99%match93¢+8%
2027 Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen assures she will be a candidate and will campaign "without an electronic bracelet"
YESBBC99%match93¢+8%
Marine Le Pen says she will run for president in 2027 and take appeal against conviction to France's top court
YESwelt.de99%match92¢+9%
Marine Le Pen intends to run in the presidential election despite the verdict.
YESft.com99%match91¢+10%
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen says she will run for president
YESFrench Media99%match92¢+9%
BREAKING NEWS "I will not change my mind": Convicted on appeal but still eligible, Marine Le Pen confirms her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election
YESbfmtv.com99%match95¢+5%
"I will not change my mind": Convicted on appeal but eligible, Marine Le Pen confirms she will be a candidate in the 2027 presidential election
YESbild.de99%match97¢+3%
Despite the verdict: Marine Le Pen will run in the presidential election
YESFrench Media99%match93¢+8%
2027 Presidential Election Marine Le Pen announces her candidacy and will campaign "without an electronic tag"
YESAl Jazeera99%match70¢+43%
Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right in France: I will run for president in 2027 without an electronic bracelet.
YESisraelnews2399%match70¢+43%
France | Marine Le Pen announces that she will be a candidate in the presidential election and that she will campaign while wearing an electronic bracelet.
NOFrench Media99%match47¢-100%
LIVE 2027 Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen announced her decision to Jordan Bardella (BFMTV NEWS)
YESSemi-Official YJC News Agency99%match30¢+233%
French court clears path for Marine Le Pen to run in 2027 presidential election A French appeals court has reduced Marine Le Pen's ban on public activity, effectively clearing her path to run in the 2027 presidential election. @YjcNewsChannel
YESyomiuri.co.jp99%match27¢+270%
Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally and top poll candidate for the next French presidential election, receives a reduced sentence, making her eligible to run for president.
NOnikkei.com99%match73¢-100%
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen found guilty of financial misconduct; may abandon 2027 presidential bid.
YESUkrainian Media99%match28¢+257%
A court in France has commuted the sentence of far-right leader Le Pen, paving the way for her to run in the 2027 presidential election. The Paris Court of Appeal has reduced the sentence of Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally, to three years suspended, of which she will spend one year under house arrest, with an electronic bracelet, and a fine of €100,000. The five-year ban on holding public office has also been effectively lifted - the court reduced the ban to 45 months, 30 of which are suspended. This paves the way for Le Pen to run in the 2027 French presidential election. At the same time, the far-right leader has not yet decided whether she will run in them - she previously stated that she will not campaign with an ankle bracelet. Le Pen was known for her pro-Russian views, but she condemned Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and has recently criticized Donald Trump for cutting aid to Kiev. Le Pen has a strong chance of winning the election: her approval rating in France is around 40%, and according to polls she is the leader of the first round. If Le Pen withdraws, her protégé Jordan Bardella, who is considered more moderate and acceptable in the EU - the French version of Giorgia Malone - will run. He has also repeatedly stressed his support for Kyiv's sovereignty, although he opposes sending French troops to Ukraine. Today's verdict was the culmination of a case that has lasted more than 10 years. Le Pen and several of her colleagues were accused of illegally using European Parliament funds to pay aides who dealt with internal party affairs rather than EU issues. In March 2025, the court found Le Pen guilty of embezzlement. In the photo by Le Monde: Le Pen at the Paris Court of Appeal [in reply to: Marine Le Pen declared that she would fight for the right to run for president: Macron's party responded In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who was found guilty by a court of misappropriating EU funds to finance her party and was barred from running for president, announced her intention to defend her right to participate in the elections. During a rally in Paris, the head of the National Rally faction called the court decision "an affront to democratic principles." A representative of Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance party, Gabriel Attal, reacted to Le Pen's words. He accused the far-right of trying to undermine the authority of the judiciary and democratic institutions. When you steal, you have to pay. Especially if you are a politician.]
YESnewsdig.tbs.co.jp98%match22¢+355%
French far-right figure Marine Le Pen has been found guilty again, making her legally eligible to run in next year's presidential election.
YEScbsnews.com99%match18¢+456%
French right-wing leader Marine Le Pen cleared to run in 2027 election
YESRussian Media99%match20¢+400%
Marine Le Pen will be able to run for president of France in the 2027 elections. The Paris Court of Appeal has reduced the sentence of the leader of the National Rally parliamentary faction in the case of misuse of European Parliament funds, writes France24. Earlier, the Paris court banned Le Pen from participating in the elections for five years. In the new instance, it was reduced to 45 months, of which 30 months are suspended. At the same time, the punishment of one year under house arrest with an electronic bracelet and two years suspended remained in force. Le Pen must also pay a fine of 100,000 euros. Reuters Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS application | Android [in reply to: A Paris court sentenced Marine Le Pen, the leader of the National Rally parliamentary group, to four years in prison, two of which are suspended, BFMTV reports. Le Pen will also be barred from running for office. The French presidential election is scheduled for April 2027. "Today, it's not just Marine Le Pen who is being unfairly condemned: French democracy is being executed," wrote Jordan Bardella, the leader of the National Rally, in X. Earlier, the court found Le Pen and eight other members guilty of embezzling European Parliament funds through the fictitious hiring of assistants. Reuters ]
YESnypost.com99%match17¢+488%
French court clears way for Marine Le Pen to run in 2027 but under a condition she rejects
YESlivesquawk99%match55¢+82%
Marine Le Pen Cleared To Run In Next Presidential Election
NOJ.Post / i24 Reporter99%match90¢-100%
Le Pen will not be able to run in the 2027 presidential election following the corruption scandal [in reply to: In the next hour: French court decision - will right-wing leader Marine Le Pen be able to run in the presidential election next year. At 4:00 PM: British right-wing leader Nigel Farage will make a statement on his "political future"]

Where does the news lean?

69YES6NO17neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.

Past moves on this market

Material odds moves (8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.

How did this market resolve?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election. A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election. If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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