Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election? Odds jumped to 20% on Jul 7, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election? On , the market’s odds jumped from 10¢ to 19.5¢ (+9.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from J.Post / i24 Reporter. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match10¢
+5m36.5¢
+30m16¢
+1h19.5¢
+24h93.5¢
1h move+9.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 7, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 54.5¢ → 18¢-36.5 ptsafter a signal from livesquawk
  • 18¢ → 27¢+9 ptsafter a signal from cbsnews.com
  • 52.5¢ → 94¢+41.5 ptsafter a signal from French Media
  • 82.5¢ → 93.5¢+11 ptsafter a signal from French Media
  • 71¢ → 93.5¢+22.5 ptsafter a signal from French Media
  • 70¢ → 93.5¢+23.5 ptsafter a signal from israelnews23
  • 70¢ → 93.5¢+23.5 ptsafter a signal from Al Jazeera

What moved the odds?

NoJ.Post / i24 Reporter99%match
Le Pen will not be able to run in the 2027 presidential election following the corruption scandal [in reply to: In the next hour: French court decision - will right-wing leader Marine Le Pen be able to run in the presidential election next year. At 4:00 PM: British right-wing leader Nigel Farage will make a statement on his "political future"]

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$121K

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Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for 2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.