Brazil Presidential Election First Round WinnerLula
ResolvedOutcome: No$3.4Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NONews92%match100¢
*BRAZIL ELECTION HEADS TO BOLSONARO, LULA RUNOFF ON OCT. 25
YESNews91%match76¢-100%
*LULA HAS 45%, BOLSONARO 42% IN FIRST ROUND SCENARIO: ATLASINTEL
Question: Lula reaches 39% of voting intention in the first round, two points more than last week, compared to 34% for the Liberal Party candidate.
Brazil’s Lula widens first-round lead; runoff with Bolsonaro stays tight, BTG/Nexus poll shows
YESReuters98%match73¢-100%
Lula Seen with 40% of Vote vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 36% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Datafolha Poll
In the first round, Lula would have 43% and Flávio Bolsonaro 37.4%. The rest of the candidates would be below 7%.
Where does the news lean?
43YES9NO45neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
dadosabertos.tse.jus.br
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See all outcomes for Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.