Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? Odds fell to 60% on Oct 3, 2026

OpenMove

Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? On , the market’s odds fell from 71¢ to 59.5¢ (-11.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 3-source news cluster, from Reuters.

How did the odds move?

At match71¢
+5m71¢
+30m59.5¢
+1h59.5¢
1h move-11.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Part of a 3-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

YesReuters97%match
Lula Seen with 46% of Valid Votes, Flavio Bolsonaro 45% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Quaest Poll

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 61% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES61¢
NO40¢

Vol$552K

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Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.