Prime Minister of Australia after next election?Larissa Waters

OpenVol$491Deadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES1¢
NO99¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

Greens Leader Larissa Waters quits amid health battle, sparking race to replace her CANBERRA — Australian Greens LeaderLarissa Watershas announced her shock decision to stand aside as she battles kidney disease, with the party to elect a new leader by the end of the week. Waters, who was elected leader following the May 2025 federal election, informed colleagues Monday, publicly announcing the news Monday evening. The Greens will hold a party room meeting to electWaters’replacement this week, though a date is yet to be set. “It has been a tremendous honor to be leader of the Greens, fighting for people and the planet. I’m really sad that illness means my time as leader has been cut short, but our movement needs a leader in good health to lead us to success at the next election,”Waterssaid in a statement. Waterswill take medical leave but intends to return to Parliament, where her term runs until 2031.She described her prognosis for recovery as “good.” The Greens leadership was left vacant byAdam Bandt’sshock 2025 defeat in the seat of Melbourne.Waterswas elected unanimously, although Greens senators Sarah Hanson-Young andMehreen Faruqiconsidered running for the position.Faruqiwas elected deputy. One Greens source, granted anonymity to speak candidly with POLITICO, described Waters as a compromise candidate who was a “reluctant leader.” The source saidWatershad proven collaborative and unwilling to centralize power. Critics within the party have pointed to the Greens’ stagnation in polling despite a collapse in Labor’s primary vote. SinceWaterstook the leadership,Hanson-Youngand Sen.David Shoebridgehave taken on prominent roles in pushing the party’s case publicly — onAUKUS, mitigating the risks of artificial intelligence, gambling reform and social media regulation. Faruqiis considering running. POLITICO has contacted Hanson-Young and Shoebridge for comment. Earlier this month, the Green split over a push from the Nationals to prevent the states from earning carbon credits for protecting public forests. Greens senators Jordon Steele-John,Nick McKimandVanessa Bleyervoted with the Nationals in opposition to the rest of the party. Waters’announcement came just weeks after Greens SenatorBarbara Pocockannounced she will not contest the next election, after her partner was diagnosed with brain cancer.

Where does the news lean?

0YES1NO1neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.

What would make this resolve YES?

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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