Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?
Open17as of
Market pricing makes Candidate B the favorite at 50% across 17 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
It’s question time! Angus Taylor begins, asking the prime minister why Australians are continuing to pay for “Labor’s economic incompetence”, blaming the govern
Hanson blames far left for taking her comments ‘into the realm of utter fantasy’ One Nation leader, Pauline Hanson , says her words on monoculturism have been t
Hanson importing ‘chaos and division’: Labor MP Everyone’s having a crack at Pauline Hanson this morning – no doubt because they realise the political threat sh
Speaking to the ABC earlier, One Nation MP, David Farley , was asked about reports the party’s leader Senator Pauline Hanson “had to have a conversation” with h
Jim Chalmers accuses Angus Taylor of trying to ‘out-One Nation One Nation’ – video
Pauline Hanson says parental leave will force small businesses to ‘fold’ – despite no law forcing employers to pay
Taylor threatened with suspension in the House Angus Taylor is back at the despatch box and asks Anthony Albanese, “When will you stop lying?” Milton Dick is li
Anthony Albanese is asked whether, after the longer inquiry process, Labor would be open to more changes to the NDIS reforms. The prime minister says that when
‘Important day for tax reform’: Government hails deal with Greens The prime minister, Anthony Albanese , is now addressing reporters at Parliament House with th
Hanson says businesses forced to pay parental leave will ‘fold’ Pauline Hanson has clarified (slightly) her remarks from the National press club last week on pa
What is this event about?
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.